Profitability countdownHey guys, here is a post (that will probly get debunked by Mas, but eh, I gotta try) about making a countdown to profitability based on what we know, and what we will get in the following NR.
First, as Mas posted earlier, we need 3.6 millions gross sales a year at the current cash burn to break even. So 900k a quarter.
Second, I think (and this is the most up in the air part) that every subscriber we get earns us about 3 $ a month in average. I know their prices are over that on their site, but I assume big organization gets a good rebate and personnal subscriber pay the price on the site... So I am just trying to average it up. Please note, that I have chosen 3 $ because it is the number that makes the most sense based on the management profitability forecast.
So, where are we NOW you might ask at the end of 2017 Q4 ?
2017 Q3 earned us 236.9k. With 8% organic growth, We should start Q4 calculations with 255.9k$
By the way, Based on my model, that would mean we have around 255 900$ / 3$ / 3 (3 month in a quarter) = 28 433 subscriber.
Then, we add 2 major contracts SIlver Mining with 4000 subs and Arkansas Bar at 5500. With all the smaller news release, lets say we had 10 000 more.
10 000 X 3$ X 3 month = 90 000$
255 900 + 90 000 = 345 900 $ for 2017 Q4
So we have 345 900 $ of the 900 000$ needed or 38 433 / 100 000 subscribers or 38,4%
This makes sense, since after the PP close, we had around 10 000 subs in a month, At that rythm, it will take us anthother 6 months more or less, which lead us straight into 2018 Q2...
Let me know what you think !
By the way, if you wanna be conservative, here is the math for an average income of 2$ a subscriber.
So we have 315 900 $ of the 900 000$ needed or 52,650 / 150 000 subscribers or 35,1%
10 Months to profitability
Or if you wanna be trigger happy, the math for 4$ a subscriber
So we have 375 900 $ of the 900 000$ needed or 31 325 / 75 000 subscribers or 41.8%
4-5 months to profitability
(This seems to be Mas hypothesis since he said he thinks we are at 400k revenue allready)