RE:US Shale Rystad looked at two counties in particular – Karnes and De Witt – where infill drilling was especially dominant. In these two counties, the IP rates increased sharply between 2011 and 2016. In 2011, the IP for a new well in De Witt County peaked at about 500 barrels per day (bpd), a figure that nearly doubled to 900 bpd by 2016. Based on that, it appears that the shale industry has become dramatically more efficient, and it suggests that if such breakthroughs can be replicated, U.S. oil production can continue to climb.
But the huge gains fizzled after the first few months. Rystad concludes that when taking into account the first full year of production, not just the first month or two, the 2016 wells only resulted in an additional 40,000 barrels of oil compared to the 2011 wells. By the second year of production, the newer wells do not outperform the older ones at all. In other words, the 2016 wells had a stronger burst of output right away, but that was offset by steeper declines as the year wore on. “By any means, this cannot be classified as a significant uplift for the well ultimate recovery when considering a 100 percent increase in the peak production rate,” Rystad concludes.