RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:No blood bath?! Where are the sellers and shortest?Curv
Since trade is unavailable at the moment I will take a stab.
Based on the 30 million number they have left on revolver after cerro sale one must use cash on hand, cash flow and Vat refunds to pay down revolver.
I understand you dont believe for a minute P can turn a profit in q4 but I do based on the increased mill output of 2000 tpd in september vs 1246 in q3. The tide may be turning especially if they hit close to projected 2400 tpd projected in q4. With the higher grades from best veins in q4 and a big stockpile of ore already expensed in q3 I think odds are good they turn a profit, 3-5 million imo.
They had 8 million in gold and silver inventories in addition to run ore and supplies in q3 vs the 1 million in q1 and 5 million in q2 . That final product amount should help the profit situation as there is no expense processing ore involved.
The Vat refund outstanding is about 21 million. Last qtr they got about 15 million so mexico turned spigot back on. I will assume they got half that amount back for 7 million worst case. Or they sold all of the 21 million Vat refund at a steep discount for say 15 million.
They had 22 million in cash in october. So maybe they keep 12 million in cash like previous qtrs and use 10 to pay down revolver. That leaves 20 million left on revolver. 3 million in q4 profits leaves 17 million left on revolver. Selling entire Vat refund for 15 million leaves 3 million left on revolver. Its doable.
Maybe mexico just gives them the 21 million refund and they would then have no revolver debt with 5 million line of credit and 14 mil in bank. We will see.