I have not seen any short squeeze so farIt is common sense that when more buyer than sellers come in the stock price moves up. When the sellers take over the stock price drops.
When a stock has a short position. Then the short sellers are guaranteed buyers. They will have to buy one day to cover their positions.
Short sellers may have different reasons it could be a sector short or there is something fundamentally wrong with the company and its finances.
I took a look at few Canadian oil companies and saw that there has been an increase in their short positions specially in the last months.
Besides other reasons there are some institutional investors that do not believe that Oil has staying power. Plus Canadian oil has been trading at a huge discount because of oil delivery issues.
I have been observing the trading pattern of CJ for about two months in which the short postion has increased by 4.5 million shares. The average price that these shares were shorted is under $4.80 and the stock was shorted using the Anonymous. There are times when it is hard to guess. But in case of CJ Anonymous was one the biggest largest seller. Other broker that had big volume was CIBC. It is know that COBC is the largest HFT in Canada which generated over 50 % of HFT volumes. The trading pattern of CIBC in the case of CJ indicates that most of the trades for small spread. CIBC last month bought and sold over 5 million shares but the net trading position for the broker was only 131945.
Last month Anonymous bought 7.8 million and sold 10 m net sales of 2.2m shares. Lot of institutions use Anonymous to hide their identity.
Identifying shorting and short covering involves lot of guess work. But if you closely monitor a stock regularly at times you can identify patterns.
Since the last short position report came out I have not seen mush of short covering. At this time there is 10.8 million shares shorted around 4.5m have a cost of under $4.80 and are underwater. As of today only few hundred thousand shares would have been covered. Still there has to be over 10m shares that the short sellers have to eventually buy. For a stock like CJ that is lot of shares.
Would we ever get a short squeeze? The answer is I do not know. It all depends how the prices of oil behave plus the flow of funds in oil stocks. The flow of funds into oil stock is very pathetic so. There is an issue of Canadian oil discount for some Canadian oil companies. The companies that are not affected by it would be generating serious free cash flow. If the market continues to ignore them then the next financial result will be the trigger for run up in prices.
There is sometimes a disconnect in the market. There is a lag. Eventually the market will catch and correctly price the stocks based on their fundamentals.
Short Positions for CJ
| T : CJ | 2017-12-15 | 10,826,808 | 635,706 | 110,838,321 | 9.77 |
| T : CJ | 2017-11-30 | 10,191,102 | 2,750,514 | 110,360,743 | 9.23 |
| T : CJ | 2017-11-15 | 7,440,588 | 654,759 | 110,324,045 | 6.74 |
| T : CJ | 2017-10-31 | 6,785,829 | 540,885 | 110,324,045 | 6.15 |
| T : CJ | 2017-10-15 | 6,244,944 | 32,979 | 110,324,045 | 5.66 |
| T : CJ | 2017-09-30 | 6,211,965 | 155,764 | 110,324,045 | 5.63 |
| T : CJ | 2017-09-15 | 6,056,201 | 366,763 | 110,310,282 | 5.49 |
| T : CJ | 2017-08-31 | 5,689,438 | 330,889 | 110,310,282 | 5.16 |
| T : CJ | 2017-08-15 | 5,358,549 | 298,891 | 110,184,186 | 4.86 |
| T : CJ | 2017-07-31 | 5,059,658 | -1,548,981 | 110,184,186 | 4.59 |
| T : CJ | 2017-07-15 | 6,608,639 | -1,529,032 | 110,128,828 | 6.00 |
| T : CJ | 2017-06-30 | 8,137,671 | 1,247,349 | 110,128,828 | 7.39 |
| T : CJ | 2017-06-15 | 6,890,322 | 1,021,071 | 79,206,834 | 8.70 |
| T : CJ | 2017-05-31 | 5,869,251 | -8,423 | 79,206,834 | 7.41 |
House Positions for C:CJ from 20171115 to 20171215 | 2 RBC | 4,764,482 | 22,833,501 | 4.792 | 3,534,047 | 16,886,265 | 4.778 | 1,230,435 | -5,947,236 |
| 7 TD Sec | 6,874,631 | 32,861,649 | 4.78 | 6,045,752 | 29,002,106 | 4.797 | 828,879 | -3,859,543 |
| 80 National Bank | 1,332,569 | 6,441,615 | 4.834 | 610,087 | 2,946,228 | 4.829 | 722,482 | -3,495,387 |
| 9 BMO Nesbitt | 1,857,351 | 8,885,305 | 4.784 | 1,256,114 | 6,020,165 | 4.793 | 601,237 | -2,865,140 |
| 85 Scotia | 1,998,289 | 9,538,385 | 4.773 | 1,661,737 | 7,953,209 | 4.786 | 336,552 | -1,585,176 |
| 13 Instinet | 890,822 | 4,265,824 | 4.789 | 648,646 | 3,099,117 | 4.778 | 242,176 | -1,166,707 |
| 124 Questrade | 403,977 | 1,924,269 | 4.763 | 204,138 | 987,385 | 4.837 | 199,839 | -936,884 |
| 74 GMP | 408,820 | 1,998,870 | 4.889 | 288,084 | 1,374,334 | 4.771 | 120,736 | -624,536 |
| 200 Acumen | 100,000 | 459,801 | 4.598 | 10,000 | 46,846 | 4.685 | 90,000 | -412,955 |
| 59 PI | 102,920 | 490,760 | 4.768 | 19,014 | 91,235 | 4.798 | 83,906 | -399,525 |
| 58 Qtrade | 278,443 | 1,340,356 | 4.814 | 199,282 | 967,766 | 4.856 | 79,161 | -372,590 |
| 33 Canaccord | 133,897 | 647,323 | 4.834 | 61,990 | 293,945 | 4.742 | 71,907 | -353,378 |
| 89 Raymond James | 76,101 | 372,455 | 4.894 | 6,059 | 29,019 | 4.789 | 70,042 | -343,436 |
| 48 Laurentian | 59,800 | 289,546 | 4.842 | 0 | | 59,800 | -289,546 |
| 15 UBS | 158,996 | 786,765 | 4.948 | 112,574 | 532,937 | 4.734 | 46,422 | -253,828 |
| 76 Industrial Alliance | 56,225 | 269,808 | 4.799 | 15,000 | 71,557 | 4.77 | 41,225 | -198,251 |
| 73 Cormark | 1,426,700 | 6,857,924 | 4.807 | 1,393,000 | 6,717,493 | 4.822 | 33,700 | -140,431 |
| 101 SG Capital | 109,900 | 525,264 | 4.779 | 78,100 | 379,119 | 4.854 | 31,800 | -146,145 |
| 70 Manulife | 36,885 | 185,076 | 5.018 | 5,375 | 25,259 | 4.699 | 31,510 | -159,817 |
| 88 Credential | 60,470 | 285,199 | 4.716 | 29,487 | 148,872 | 5.049 | 30,983 | -136,327 |
| 22 Fidelity | 64,439 | 307,287 | 4.769 | 47,300 | 227,795 | 4.816 | 17,139 | -79,492 |
| 68 Leede | 56,000 | 265,846 | 4.747 | 40,802 | 196,114 | 4.806 | 15,198 | -69,732 |
| 94 Hampton | 10,000 | 48,577 | 4.858 | 0 | | 10,000 | -48,577 |
| 19 Desjardins | 73,054 | 348,006 | 4.764 | 63,065 | 308,322 | 4.889 | 9,989 | -39,684 |
| 83 Mackie | 17,520 | 83,153 | 4.746 | 8,300 | 40,868 | 4.924 | 9,220 | -42,285 |
| 3 AltaCorp | 8,000 | 37,996 | 4.75 | 0 | | 8,000 | -37,996 |
| 57 Interactive | 27,856 | 132,779 | 4.767 | 20,013 | 96,424 | 4.818 | 7,843 | -36,355 |
| 25 Odlum | 8,500 | 39,792 | 4.681 | 1,000 | 5,190 | 5.19 | 7,500 | -34,602 |
| 143 Pershing | 16,870 | 81,256 | 4.817 | 9,585 | 45,361 | 4.732 | 7,285 | -35,895 |
| 27 Dundee | 5,000 | 24,250 | 4.85 | 0 | | 5,000 | -24,250 |
| 99 Jitney | 64,200 | 304,175 | 4.738 | 61,000 | 292,430 | 4.794 | 3,200 | -11,745 |
| 77 Peters | 52,800 | 249,971 | 4.734 | 50,668 | 244,948 | 4.834 | 2,132 | -5,023 |
| 5 Penson | 2,860 | 13,539 | 4.734 | 733 | 3,514 | 4.794 | 2,127 | -10,025 |
| 102 Lakeshore | 500 | 2,365 | 4.73 | 0 | | 500 | -2,365 |
| 28 BBS | 3,083 | 14,667 | 4.757 | 3,122 | 15,197 | 4.868 | -39 | 530 |
| 222 JP Morgan | 600 | 3,060 | 5.10 | 1,000 | 4,950 | 4.95 | -400 | 1,890 |
| 36 Latimer | 12,031 | 57,556 | 4.784 | 12,700 | 62,767 | 4.942 | -669 | 5,211 |
| 56 Edward Jones | 6,736 | 32,301 | 4.795 | 7,914 | 38,073 | 4.811 | -1,178 | 5,772 |
| 84 Ind Trading | 111,682 | 532,562 | 4.769 | 113,193 | 540,018 | 4.771 | -1,511 | 7,456 |
| 62 Haywood | 8,400 | 40,203 | 4.786 | 20,076 | 95,841 | 4.774 | -11,676 | 55,638 |
| 11 Macquarie | 5,000 | 23,300 | 4.66 | 25,000 | 124,251 | 4.97 | -20,000 | 100,951 |
| 14 ITG | 38,616 | 186,032 | 4.817 | 59,540 | 283,067 | 4.754 | -20,924 | 97,035 |
| 72 Credit Suisse | 74,892 | 359,963 | 4.806 | 98,660 | 474,690 | 4.811 | -23,768 | 114,727 |
| 86 Pictet | 0 | | 30,000 | 138,957 | 4.632 | -30,000 | 138,957 |
| 55 Velocity | 0 | | 50,000 | 235,880 | 4.718 | -50,000 | 235,880 |
| 65 Goldman | 87,471 | 425,807 | 4.868 | 182,204 | 872,558 | 4.789 | -94,733 | 446,751 |
| 79 CIBC | 5,526,471 | 26,550,922 | 4.804 | 5,658,416 | 27,102,802 | 4.79 | -131,945 | 551,880 |
| 39 Merrill Lynch | 1,374,580 | 6,623,747 | 4.819 | 1,591,535 | 7,626,393 | 4.792 | -216,955 | 1,002,646 |
| 53 Morgan Stanley | 553,189 | 2,639,972 | 4.772 | 1,007,829 | 4,864,987 | 4.827 | -454,640 | 2,225,015 |
| 90 Barclays | 365,100 | 1,723,167 | 4.72 | 2,094,173 | 9,950,781 | 4.752 | -1,729,073 | 8,227,614 |
| 1 Anonymous | 7,814,320 | 37,532,641 | 4.803 | 10,084,734 | 48,479,552 | 4.807 | -2,270,414 | 10,946,911 |
| TOTAL | 37,521,048 | 179,944,587 | 4.796 | 37,521,048 | 179,944,587 | 4.796 | 0 | 0 |
House Positions for C:CJ from 20171015 to 20171115 | 79 CIBC | 8,436,425 | 40,031,551 | 4.745 | 7,335,932 | 34,550,580 | 4.71 | 1,100,493 | -5,480,971 |
| 77 Peters | 1,017,354 | 5,068,646 | 4.982 | 499,538 | 2,474,574 | 4.954 | 517,816 | -2,594,072 |
| 7 TD Sec | 6,087,022 | 29,001,411 | 4.764 | 5,675,759 | 27,128,121 | 4.78 | 411,263 | -1,873,290 |
| 73 Cormark | 1,066,100 | 5,318,355 | 4.989 | 740,700 | 3,739,247 | 5.048 | 325,400 | -1,579,108 |
| 2 RBC | 5,402,041 | 24,089,951 | 4.459 | 5,119,541 | 23,515,022 | 4.593 | 282,500 | -574,929 |
| 13 Instinet | 835,800 | 4,070,757 | 4.87 | 619,961 | 3,043,651 | 4.909 | 215,839 | -1,027,106 |
| 59 PI | 223,320 | 1,068,314 | 4.784 | 48,400 | 237,354 | 4.904 | 174,920 | -830,960 |
| 9 BMO Nesbitt | 2,023,858 | 9,521,556 | 4.705 | 1,886,538 | 8,997,078 | 4.769 | 137,320 | -524,478 |
| 3 AltaCorp | 100,000 | 480,048 | 4.80 | 76 | 408 | 5.368 | 99,924 | -479,640 |
| 90 Barclays | 444,800 | 2,075,541 | 4.666 | 354,391 | 1,713,641 | 4.835 | 90,409 | -361,900 |
| 57 Interactive | 73,590 | 330,388 | 4.49 | 10,239 | 48,384 | 4.725 | 63,351 | -282,004 |
| 55 Velocity | 35,000 | 163,100 | 4.66 | 7,000 | 36,734 | 5.248 | 28,000 | -126,366 |
| 62 Haywood | 37,338 | 167,054 | 4.474 | 9,600 | 51,501 | 5.365 | 27,738 | -115,553 |
| 48 Laurentian | 46,200 | 196,810 | 4.26 | 26,600 | 139,244 | 5.235 | 19,600 | -57,566 |
| 33 Canaccord | 238,342 | 1,159,178 | 4.864 | 219,356 | 957,869 | 4.367 | 18,986 | -201,309 |
| 72 Credit Suisse | 101,010 | 493,028 | 4.881 | 83,590 | 413,084 | 4.942 | 17,420 | -79,944 |
| 83 Mackie | 22,700 | 111,937 | 4.931 | 11,300 | 60,214 | 5.329 | 11,400 | -51,723 |
| 22 Fidelity | 83,702 | 379,780 | 4.537 | 73,568 | 373,401 | 5.076 | 10,134 | -6,379 |
| 28 BBS | 16,718 | 72,601 | 4.343 | 7,315 | 33,466 | 4.575 | 9,403 | -39,135 |
| 124 Questrade | 354,868 | 1,738,407 | 4.899 | 346,556 | 1,731,179 | 4.995 | 8,312 | -7,228 |
| 68 Leede | 28,900 | 149,468 | 5.172 | 21,700 | 110,443 | 5.09 | 7,200 | -39,025 |
| 86 Pictet | 6,000 | 26,220 | 4.37 | 0 | | 6,000 | -26,220 |
| 143 Pershing | 5,600 | 29,084 | 5.194 | 0 | | 5,600 | -29,084 |
| 25 Odlum | 10,650 | 48,459 | 4.55 | 5,703 | 30,541 | 5.355 | 4,947 | -17,918 |
| 14 ITG | 37,500 | 183,166 | 4.884 | 34,005 | 165,179 | 4.857 | 3,495 | -17,987 |
| 58 Qtrade | 204,096 | 1,012,330 | 4.96 | 200,883 | 1,005,946 | 5.008 | 3,213 | -6,384 |
| 27 Dundee | 2,300 | 11,620 | 5.052 | 0 | | 2,300 | -11,620 |
| 222 JP Morgan | 2,012 | 9,647 | 4.795 | 0 | | 2,012 | -9,647 |
| 16 Paradigm | 2,000 | 9,920 | 4.96 | 0 | | 2,000 | -9,920 |
| 5 Penson | 2,394 | 11,228 | 4.69 | 446 | 2,261 | 5.07 | 1,948 | -8,967 |
| 70 Manulife | 6,800 | 36,376 | 5.349 | 5,371 | 23,044 | 4.29 | 1,429 | -13,332 |
| 102 Lakeshore | 32 | 138 | 4.313 | 0 | | 32 | -138 |
| 11 Macquarie | 130,000 | 674,700 | 5.19 | 130,000 | 674,700 | 5.19 | 0 | 0 |
| 56 Edward Jones | 680 | 3,196 | 4.70 | 1,002 | 5,000 | 4.99 | -322 | 1,804 |
| 36 Latimer | 13,677 | 67,436 | 4.931 | 14,007 | 73,076 | 5.217 | -330 | 5,640 |
| 88 Credential | 66,574 | 313,960 | 4.716 | 67,261 | 311,833 | 4.636 | -687 | -2,127 |
| 76 Industrial Alliance | 96,825 | 445,218 | 4.598 | 104,450 | 471,274 | 4.512 | -7,625 | 26,056 |
| 94 Hampton | 0 | | 10,000 | 51,203 | 5.12 | -10,000 | 51,203 |
| 19 Desjardins | 144,158 | 692,745 | 4.805 | 161,072 | 782,912 | 4.861 | -16,914 | 90,167 |
| 200 Acumen | 11,477 | 49,001 | 4.269 | 29,169 | 153,805 | 5.273 | -17,692 | 104,804 |
| 101 SG Capital | 121,700 | 575,662 | 4.73 | 140,000 | 661,665 | 4.726 | -18,300 | 86,003 |
| 53 Morgan Stanley | 833,007 | 3,994,088 | 4.795 | 856,374 | 4,135,395 | 4.829 | -23,367 | 141,307 |
| 99 Jitney | 76,200 | 380,472 | 4.993 | 109,300 | 528,013 | 4.831 | -33,100 | 147,541 |
| 15 UBS | 220,260 | 1,063,047 | 4.826 | 256,048 | 1,138,376 | 4.446 | -35,788 | 75,329 |
| 80 National Bank | 766,652 | 3,744,909 | 4.885 | 836,097 | 4,184,635 | 5.005 | -69,445 | 439,726 |
| 65 Goldman | 185,183 | 903,776 | 4.88 | 292,032 | 1,359,373 | 4.655 | -106,849 | 455,597 |
| 74 GMP | 312,134 | 1,535,450 | 4.919 | 448,865 | 2,035,454 | 4.535 | -136,731 | 500,004 |
| 39 Merrill Lynch | 1,976,658 | 9,339,749 | 4.725 | 2,168,075 | 10,170,093 | 4.691 | -191,417 | 830,344 |
| 8 Eight | 25,000 | 104,750 | 4.19 | 275,000 | 1,167,500 | 4.245 | -250,000 | 1,062,750 |
| 89 Raymond James | 123,597 | 590,579 | 4.778 | 456,821 | 2,203,623 | 4.824 | -333,224 | 1,613,044 |
| 85 Scotia | 2,047,586 | 9,449,084 | 4.615 | 2,738,130 | 13,113,311 | 4.789 | -690,544 | 3,664,227 |
| 1 Anonymous | 9,974,186 | 47,390,222 | 4.751 | 11,642,255 | 54,580,706 | 4.688 | -1,668,069 | 7,190,484 |
| TOTAL | 44,080,026 | 208,384,113 | 4.727 | 44,080,026 | 208,384,113 | 4.727 | 0 | 0 |