The price of weedBlack market wholesale weed is currently $1200/lb. Good Outdoor can be had for $200/lb. A year ago hydro was over $2000-2400. There are literally no barriers to entry in this business. Any A~Hole and his mother can start a grow op. Everyone has access to all the strains so it’s hard to differentiate. People that smoke a lot can grow on their own. You can literally get a Health Canada medical license that lets you have 300-600 plants for “personal consumption”.
The black market will exist past legalization and steal a bunch of the market. I already know legal growers who can’t even sell their inventory. I know black market operations who are getting undercut from BC black market growers. They are trying to make hash and shatter with the stuff they can’t sell. This industry is going to get highly competitive and commoditized. Margins will shrink. It’s happening in the black market and it’s not because the cops are shutting them down. There is literally too much supply. Maybe some niche products will make good margins, but weed will get extremely commoditized, it’s already happening.
Weed prices at dispensaries started at 15/g and are now under 10. Everyone focuses on growing capacity, but basic supply and demand is what you need to know. Maybe the LCBO may control prices in the short term, but I’m sure they will eventually adjust for demand. People who smoke a lot will go to the black market if prices are significantly lower.
The only ones that will make money are the people selling the pick axes to the miners in the gold rush, i.e equipment and nutrient suppliers. These prices are insane. Good luck.