RE:RE:RE:Quick and Dirty Sanity Check
Aditional things to note:
-PE of 20 is aggressive once they reach their peek; when (or if) they get there it should shrink a lot.
-How many companies will sell weed? A lot. Using total capacity to estimate sales is a huge flaw. For instance, industrial capacity utilization of tobacco companies in Canada is 55-65% (see https://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/econ91-eng.htm ).
-In addition, this would exclude any other additional taxes (for example, for cigarette & gaz on top of HST there are additional taxes). I'd personnaly use 10% as a best estimate. Therefore, sale price (pre-tax) will be a maximum of $8. Remove from that the margin of the seller (for instance LCBO as a 50%; maybe they would be fine with a 30% margin for marijuana products?) selling price would be max $5.60.
-Altough production cost could be below $1 per gram, there will be additional costs, such as packaging, shipping, handling, etc. that will need to be factored in COGS.
When I do a quick math I obtain a value that is much lower than the current market cap.