RE:RE:RE:Great idea for INPIn my mind, a couple things will fire up the share price:
1) Biggest is capital deployment. Show that they can still deploy capital, which we know earns a high IRR, even with these marketing streams being low upfront payments. First and foremost, if Input announces they deployed $30 million this quarter, the shares will skyrocket.
2) I think Input should be valued on the value of the reserves. Grow the canola reserves a lot without proportionally reducing their worth (mostly a function of capital vs marketing stream mix). If Input had 1,000,000 MT of canola reserves, the share price would be significantly higher.
3) An acquisition. If Input acquired any sort of asset/company (crusher, another grain marketer, an agronomy service, etc), that would move the needle. Putting aside any judgement on Input's business model, the market seems to be communicating that either management or the model is flawed. An acquisition wouldn't even need to be transformative, simply a bolt on acquisition that adds another way to make revenue (by crushing canola, or providing even more agronomic services, or by acquiring the customer book of another marketer,etc) would show Input is acknowledging what the market is telling them. I personally think transitioning to a farmland REIT would make a lot of sense. That is where management's forte is. If they started a farmland REIT I would be all over it (Canada is severely lacking this and someone is going to be the first and it will be the next SVI).
4) Move into other crops. I think this would be a temporary jump, because the same problems with canola will arise in the other crops. But it would get attention from investors for a bit and cause a jump.
5) I personally would buy in if I saw they were extending streaming contracts out to 10+ years. It's a flaw in the canola model that the deals are ~6 years long. Metals streamers get lifelong deals, or 40+ year deals. Input must constantly deploy the money they receive so at the end of the day, not much will ever actually make it into the company's coffers. That's why I finf the reserves value so important, it shows what Input is worth if they quit reinvesting money and returned it all to shareholders. It's like a book value for this model
Just some of my thoughts.