RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:LNG pipelineCeremony. - You might be the smartest on this board. Or perhaps I am the smartest. I dont know any of you so it is also possible that I am the dumbest person on this board (I expect you will assure me that I am the dumbest just like you assure everyone else). At the end of the day, the only thing I can say for sure is that you have a very high opinion of yourself and you take very little interest in anyone elses perspective. This is not a good attribute for an investor to have because you always need to need to hear other opinions in order to realize when you might be wrong. I barely own any Peyto stock and I bought the first bit around $15. I am looking at this in terms of when to buy and I am not concerned about near term price movements because I would prefer to buy at lower prices than higher prices and I expect to own the stock for quite some time into the future. It is again noted that, even when asked, you are unable to produce even a single example of critical analysis or thought; aside from reminding us again that the futures curve is low. Thanks for all your contributions to the discussion.
ceremony wrote: most pey investors understand one thing. they get a check in the mail every month. that's their level of understanding. And I am serious.
the AECO futures curve has been bad for awhile. It has been HORRIFIC for last two months. most still don't understand the ramifications.
it must be nice to own these stocks and not to have a worry in the world. :)
boarderex86 wrote: I would love to see your valuation to show what the share price will be when the futures are factored in so that the rest of us can appreciate your idea of fair price. The futures curve has been bad for a while now. It doesnt take an expert to understand that. I expect every buyer understand the situation at this point.
ceremony wrote: no this pipeline is not dead. nor is the Exxon LNG plan. Nor is the Shell LNG plan. they are not dead. they are on life support. I would say SHELL has the best chance to go forward. I give it a 33% chance. And the biggest beneficiary is likely Tourmaline, which has a very very tight relationship with SHELL.
the crappy futures curve HAS NOT been fully factored into the prices of these stocks. at the current AECO futures curve all these producers are KAPUT. BK.
the first AECO contract priced Above $2/gj is December 2020. Most business plans today are based on $2.50/mcf CAD AVERAGE prices.
Yes things could change and likely will change. something has gotta give. But if you are invested in one of these companies, and can look at AECO future's prices and not feel sick to your stomach, you are not interpreting them correctly. these prices are Horrific for producers.
boarderex86 wrote: In my view, it is meaningful that TC made a point of acknowledging the pipe project is not yet dead. It would be dead if there wasnt ongoing discussion about an LNG terminal being constructed. This is not significant for current gas prices (construction must be 5 years on a plant like this) but the value of Montney / Deep Basin reserves would be much higher if an LNG project were coming on the Horizon. I would expect PPY would probably benefit the most from an announcement like that. Ceremony - someone once said that the markets are forward looking. The crappy futures curve has now been factored in by the market. You need to look to the future and consider what future circumstances will help WCSB producers turn the corner. LNG perhaps?
ceremony wrote: all transcanada has committed to here is Futher study. this "news" was released last thursday. and producer stocks have gone straight down since thursday. if anythng this news only highlights the intractable problems Canada faces in gettting an LNG project completed. Let's say by some miracle one actually gets approval and starts up. It will be several Years before gas is actaully shipped from them. I remember first reading about the exciting possibilites of CA LNG plants almost 4 years ago. Which happened to be when nat gas stocks Peaked.