Cannabis legalization: a $ 1.3 billion market.(translated)
The Quebec market for recreational cannabis would amount to $ 1.3 billion. In the ten years following legalization, the value of this market could rise to $ 3.2 billion due to the gradual disappearance of the black market.
This is the view of a study by the Institute for Socio-Economic Research and Information (IRIS), which says it wants to take the lead in the debate surrounding the legalization of recreational cannabis in Canada.
The researcher at IRIS and co-author of the study, Philippe Hurteau, took the example of Colorado, then modulated its figures to the realities of the population here.
The choice of the SAQ
IRIS has analyzed two models of sales support, either by the private sector or by the public. The Institute concludes that the marketing of cannabis by the SAQ would be "slightly more advantageous" in terms of economic benefits.
The value added would be $ 845 million in the private sector, whereas it would be $ 867 million for the SAQ. Royalties paid by the Crown corporation to the government could reach $ 457 million annually.
The SAQ is better equipped to withstand the pressures of actors currently present on the black market, says Philippe Hurteau.
"It also provides a safer framework for the sale of a product that poses public health risks," he says. IRIS recommends that the SAQ take over the distribution of recreational cannabis for ten years, after which the black market would be almost completely eradicated.
For the SAQ Stores and Offices Employees Union (CSN), no actor is better placed than the SAQ to ensure the distribution of legalized cannabis in Quebec. "On the economic front, leveraging the SAQ is the best way to maximize the benefits and provide an additional source of revenue for our public services and social programs," said Alexander Joly, President of the Union of Employees.
The Inspire card would be aptly named
The report of the federal task force on legalizing cannabis, tabled on Tuesday, however, recommends not to go through state-owned companies that already sell alcohol, such as the SAQ or the LCBO, for the distribution of cannabis, so not to encourage "co-consumption".
"In Quebec, there is already a Crown corporation that has expertise in the best practices for marketing substances that can cause public health and safety problems, and that's the SAQ," said Philippe. Hurteau.
The researcher believes that there are ways to prevent the two products from cohabiting, by dedicating certain branches solely to the sale of cannabis, while retaining the majority for alcohol. Philippe Hurteau estimates that the $ 400 million generated in royalties could initially be used in new infrastructures and branches.
In its strategy, the SAQ encourages the consumption of alcohol. Will she be tempted to do the same for the pot? Can we imagine an Inspire card dedicated to cannabis?"The risk exists, it must be recognized, says Philippe Hurteau. The government is pushing the SAQ and turning it into a cash cow. There are risks that she will do the same for the pot. But it would be the same if the sale is entrusted to the private sector. And there is a better chance that this risk will be controlled if it is left to the public authorities. "
Any profits generated by his sale, he said, could be reinjected into prevention programs, which would make the sales increase much less attractive.