Q4 Projection.Some Quick Math For Q4.
Based on Available Hedging Information, I project a FFO of $126.5million with a relized exchange gain of 31.5m. I believe, BTE will have exited 2017 with a net debt of $1.65-1.7billion.
Assumptions: Using Operting Netbacks from Q3 which are based on lower WTI per BBL pricing.
| Revenues | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Hedged | USA | | |
| WTI Fixed Hedges | | | 3-Way Options | | | | Remaining BBL | | |
| Volumn | 3500 | | 14500 | | | | 22000 | | |
| Fixed Price | 54.46 | | 59 | | | | 55 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Operating NetBack (Based on Q3 Report) | 23.53 | | 23.53 | | | | 23.53 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Daily | $ 82,355.00 | | $ 341,185.00 | | | | $ 517,660.00 | | FFO |
| Quarter | $ 7,411,950.00 | | $ 30,706,650.00 | | | | $ 46,589,400.00 | | $ 84,708,000.00 |
| Yearly | $ 30,059,575.00 | | $ 124,532,525.00 | | | | $ 188,945,900.00 | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Hedged | CANADA | | |
| WCS Fixed Hedges | | | Remaining | | | | | | |
| Volumn | 10500 | | 16500 | | | | | | |
| DISCOUNT | 14.19 | | 20 | | | | | | |
| OIL ASSUMPTION | 55.00 | | 55.00 | | | | | | |
| REVENUE | 40.81 | | 35.00 | | | | | | |
| Operating NetBack (Based on Q3 Report) | 12.08 | | 12.08 | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Daily | $ 126,840.00 | | $ 199,320.00 | | | | | | FFO |
| Quarter | $ 11,415,600.00 | | $ 17,938,800.00 | | | | | | $ 29,354,400.00 |
| Yearly | $ 46,296,600.00 | | $ 72,751,800.00 | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | Nat Gas | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| AECO | | | NYMEX | | Remaining | | | | |
| Volumn | 21000 | | 22500 | | 25300 | | | | |
| Fixed Price | 2.85 | | 2.98 | | 2.8 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| BBL Conversion (6:1) | 3500 | | 3750 | | 4217 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Operating NetBack (Based on Q3 Report) | 12.08 | | 12.08 | | 12.08 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Daily | $ 42,280.00 | | $ 45,300.00 | | $ 50,937.33 | | | | FFO |
| Quarter | $ 3,805,200.00 | | $ 4,077,000.00 | | $ 4,584,360.00 | | | | $ 12,466,560.00 |
| Yearly | $ 15,432,200.00 | | $ 16,534,500.00 | | $ 18,592,126.67 | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| Total FFO | $ 126,528,960.00 | | | | | | | | |
This is my opionion, and calculation are based on my derived understanding of BTE's Position. If you find errors please educate me.
Disclaimer: I hold a large long position in BTE.
Saba