RE:RE:RE:Outline for a model of 2018 productionThe decline will will be non-linear. More of the decline will occur earlier. I think that’s why Ceremony isn’t getting an average of 101k boed like peyto estimated.
i agree with the assumption about NGL staying flat given they are allocating more to capital toward areas with liquids content.
ceremony wrote: when I average out your numbers it comes to over 105k boe/d for 2018. that's more than 2017, where they averaged 103k boe/d. this in a year they plan to cut cap ex to the bone. that's an interestinng prediction. peyto itself predicts 101k boe/d. but perhaps they are not optimistic enough. :)
ceremony wrote: did they say that NGLs would hold steady while overall production declines? or is that your usual optimism?
Yasch22 wrote:
Starting point: 115,000 boe/d exit production in 2017.
Peyto said:"Average production for the year 2018 is expected to be 2% lower than 2017." This would literally mean that production exiting Q3 and Q4 would have to be around 90,000 boe/d. I frankly don't believe that's going to happen, in part based on Peyto's own further explanation. They say that the existing production base (read 115K boe/d) is expected to decline by 35% (to 75K), while the new drilling will add 25,000 boe/d. That would mean, per quarter, they'll be losing about <9K boe/d while adding >6K boe/d.
The result is that 2018 exit production should be at 100 boe/d, which is about "2% lower than 2017."
Rough prediction: a decline of 4 boe/d per quarter, slowing to 3 boe/d in Q4.
NGL will hold steady at 11K boe/d.
Q1. 111K boe/d. NG = 100K (81K hedged, 19 unhedged). NGL 11K.
Q2. 107K boe/d. NG = 97K (78/18). NGL = 11K.
Q3. 103K. NG = 94K (75/17). NGL = 11K.
Q4. 100K. NG = 91K (73/16). NGL = 11K.