RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Is the Spot Price dead? There I pressed the "quote" button. Does that help?
I think you are right KingKyle.It is more likely to be a blend of all of those factors. Certainly it is true that the Japanese tilities do not act in unison. Tokyo Electric will almost certainly not want any more uranium which is why they cancelled their contract with CCO. So very likely they are still dumping excess invenmtory on the markets. On the other hand Kansai Electric which runs the recently restarted Takahama 3 and 4 and is about to restart Ohi 3 and 4 are likely wanting to hold on to their inventory...maybe selling a bit here and there.
This is a very opaque marketplace and we are only guessing that is what is actually happening.
I am also in agreement that this market may not turn around in 2018...that is overly optimistic although I would not rule it out. However that is entirely dependent on the folks in Kazakhstan. They may well be the caialyst that gets the utilities into the buying mode. But it is anyone's guess in my opinion.There are too many variables to draw any valid conclusions so it is best not tpo try and time this. The sensible approach is to prepare your portfolio for the inevitable price increase by positioning yourself across theboard in Uranium stocks. There are so few of them now that should be an easy task. It will be very interesting how much the Kazakhs launch their IPO at. It may be worth buying some of that to add to your portfolio.
Regards
Malcolm
KingKyle wrote: I agree Malcolm that enrichers could be underfeeding the supply and maybe Japanese excess inventory still leaking (though could be less). Both could compromise the cuts maybe reason why spot is stagnant. I feel it is wait and see on utilities side which has been past behaviour. Sometime in the next 2-3 years there is tipping point so the contrarian must be extremely patient.
Malcolm2001 wrote: They may not be. I think the spot market supply is coming from enrichers although that is very hard to tell. There is no doubt that the Kazakhs want a higher price for their Uranium but they also need to generate revenue to sustain their operations so some of their material is still likely making it to the spot market. Another thought that I had a while back is that the Kazakhs may want to put as much economic pressure on their #1 competitor (which is Cameco) as they can. From their perspective Cameco going out of business would leave the market wide open. It may or may not be part of their strategy but who knows. I have not seen a firm date for their IPO. All I know is that it is likely to be issued on the London Stock Exchange but when I do not know. I don't think that it will occur until the spot price is above $50. I wish I knew the answers to your questions. One part of me thinks a big price rise is imminenet. The cautious side of me thinks in is a couple of years away.
Best to position yout portfolio for both scenarios.
M