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RE:RE:Math Problem from Echo

[Drrwong]

I know there is a lot of frustration with management on this board these days, but regardless of what you think about management, the key questions everyone should be asking themselves should be:

-  Will FDA / CMS / AAMI mandate terminal sterilization for scopes?
-  How broad the scope of the mandate will be (just ERCPs, or ERCPs + colonoscopes)?
-  How quick will this happen (when is mandate adoption + phase-in period)?
-  Will another technology emerge that will get the same FDA claims?

If you think terminal sterilization wil be mandated, then the penetration rate will be virtually 100% because it is the law.  So this will be Rumble / Getinge proof...

In terms of revenue, the ongoing revenue/profits are relatively easy to calculate:
-  $25 each scope/procedure (VP4 only approved for one scope per load), likely 80-85% margins
-  There were 500-600k ERCPs done in US, and 15+mm colonoscopes.  Western Europe and Japan together will be more than these numbers.
-  The sterilizer capital equipment portion is harder to do, but we know there are 2000-3000 facilities doing ERCPs in US alone (so each will need at least 1 VP4), but there will likely be some attrition to this number as low volume centers will just stop doing ERCPs as the economics don't work for them with a VP4 purchase.  Let's say $125k at 30% margins for the machines??