GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Comment by
PoorOpinionon Jan 18, 2018 6:44pm
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Post# 27389406
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Keep an eye on ATE
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Keep an eye on ATEStrikingMoose wrote: There is too much to speculate in that post (also the drugs are ATB 346, ATB 352, etc not ATE).
A similar situation was a stock I once followed CPXX. They were developing one single chemo drug for one specific type of leukemia.
The drug had better than expected results in its first phase III trial the company was snapped up immediately by a competitor for a 3000% premium. Their share price went from $1 to $30 within weeks, most of it was halted for negotiations. Only 75,000 people worldwide even have the potential to get any use out of their ONE drug that hadn't even had a second phase III trial nor been submitted for approval anywhere in the world. Market cap went from 40M to 1.2B.
If 0 patients have gastric lesions in the trial (unlikely, I think some minor but insignificant damage is possible and even expected) the drug would easily have the potential to be worth billions. If another phase 2 trial reaffirmed the pain control was what they expect, even at a lower dose, it is game over. I would be surprised if someone didn't come in and buy it. At a cost of ?????? Who knows. It would likely be an all cash up front payment for the 3 drugs or a large cash payment with a royalty deal and first right of refusal for all major markets.
If ATB346 goes to market it will be a game changer worldwide. That is worth a LOT of money. Every day that goes by the company is worth even more IMO. I think the problem is a lack of exposure.
I largely agree with you its just I doubt my judgement. The celator story is certainly instructive though, thanks
https://www.forbes.com/sites/luketimmerman/2016/05/31/celator-gets-bought-seeing-stock-rocket-from-1-68-to-30-25-in-two-months/#5451175e421f Do you not see my dilemma? It's far easier proposition to believe that I'm very deluded than the whole market is wrong, but clearly it happens.