RE:RE:Krams: is that.enough reports?
fairly said. I take it we don't have a bet ;0). For LONG term planning ... which is how any company should base its decisions, never mind a base metals Co ... this approach is correct. It's the approach and type of price long range mine planning engineers such as myself use also to craft a mine plan. For TV corporate long range planning and strategy in particular... the price for Zn you've quoted of 1.35 seems reasonable given a variety of factors ... most importantly declining headgrades world wide. It might even b a tad aggressive for long range planning of that nature. My point and frustration lies with analysts and the miner's providing guidance using numbers of this nature to project next quarter and fiscal year earnings (short / mid term projections ) ... in that context using #'s that low is just plain either dumb or disingenuous. Yet they keep doing it. I'm also not certain that I agree with u entirely that a miner's cuurent SP should be reflective of a commodity price regime that is THAT far forward projecting and aggregating. The market is forward looking, particulalry with respect to growth and FCF but it ain't that far forward looking. The blinders of most investors and therefore the market in general are usually fixed firmly on the 3 - 24 mon range that can be reasonably well predicted The fact of the matter is that no one has a clue what the Zn market might look like 5 years from now. All we know for certain is that its almost 1.60 today, trending up, and the fundamentals look very promising that it will continue at least into 2019. We can also say with virtual certainty that headgrades will continue to drop over the long range timeline and that over a similarly long timeline ... this fact has to have a long range aggregate inflationary effect of Zn prices ... it must if Zn mining is to remain economically viable enough to meet world wide demand with lower headgrades. The only caveat to that truth is substitution or other factors that reduce Zn demand long term. While it seems unwise to project the current price regime any further into the future than 2018 / 2019 and therefore onto REALLY long term SP ... it also would seem to be just as unfair to project expectations of a less rosy long term future price regime onto the short and mid term SP. What I'm trying to say is that I think it's perfectly reasonable for shareholders to expect the ; current , short, and expected higher mid term ( rest of 2018 ) Zn price regime to be having a more positive effect on the SP than it has to date. Also ... SP price escalations of 100-200% in base metal mining stocks between the bottom and top of a strong upward price cycle rise , along with 40-60% SP decreases during downward commodity corrections are common ... actually expected. Even within a single year. So the kind of fluctuations you say you don't expect are EXACTLY what I do expect when the commodity prices are moving strongly in one direction or the other . Merely highlighting my point about the kind of time bound range ( roughly 1 year ) for price expectations that typically influences SP in base metals. TV has actually been; stubbornly , maddenly , and atypically stable through this period given its industry and it's primary commodity product rise.