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TS03 Inc Trust Units TSTIF



GREY:TSTIF - Post by User

Post by Drrwongon Jan 29, 2018 12:41pm
436 Views
Post# 27455284

A few more points

A few more pointsPeople on the board (like Elgin and Echo) have done a great job analyzing the fundamentals of the company post the new interim Getinge deal. I just wanted to highlight a few more points: - Stock was hit obviously due to the increase in execution and dilution risks. However, we should be mindful that there is a higher chance of a takeout bid now since the Getinge deal is becoming less exclusive. Even without a takeout, RR can now sign up additional distribution partners (Cantel, JNJ, etc.) as Getinge loses its exclusivity in the US. - We should remember RR had a lot of experience selling in the sterilization space (Steris, Medivators). With the Getinge handcuffs coming off, let's see what RR can do on the sales front, especially after the ERCP approval - More emphasis should be put on the higher gross margins of these "returned" VP4s. I have previously assumed 30% gross margins on $135k (i.e.: $40k per VP4). Now TSO3 can make close to $100k gross profit on each unit. TSO3 has been selling 40-50 sterilizers to Getinge per quarter in 2017, which means TSO3 only has to sell 18 sterilizers per quarter to make the SAME gross profit dollars as last year. We should also note that Getinge is technically still responsible to make its minimum purchases each year, but obviously that will likely be reworked in the next agreement. - I still think the US ERCP market will be driven by the inevitable regulatory changes coming down the pipe. ERCP is the most problematic in causing superbug infections, and I still believe the uptake in this market will be Getinge/RR proof once the regulatory framework is in place. When we value the US ERCP alone, we can now see 100% upside from current stock price. At the end, I am asking you a simple question: were you more concerned/worried about Getinge dragging its feet (thus botching the VP4 launch till 2020), vs. RR not able to sell any VP4s? Given all the things we saw and know up to this point, I will put my money on RR over Getinge What if I am wrong betting on RR? Then, I still see TSo3 penetrating the ERCP market as hospitals/GI units will be driven by regulatory changes and legal considerations to adopt the VP4, and this alone now represents 100% upside. It is funny when I compare investors' mindset in Tesla vs. TOS3. Telsa bulls keep saying the company cannot possibly fail because customers love their product, despite all the delays and financial issues the company is facing. Similarly TSO3 has a product that is revolutionary and loved by users. Furthermore, unlike Tesla, TSO3's product is protected by patents that will limit competition. Yet there are many who now doubt whether the VP4s can sell? I know it has been a rough ride for many in the last week. My advice is not to focus on your cost (ie: acquisition price on your TSO3 shares), as I always believe my cost is yesterday's closing price. The question you should ask yourself is what is the risk/reward characteristics at today's prices? I personally think the risk/reward is better today vs. the time when the stock was at $3 despite Getinge's operational issues.
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