excerpt from "thedeepdive.ca"Potential Valuation Short Term Valuation Placing a valuation on a cannabis company that is still gearing up for production can often be quite difficult. In the case of The Hydropothecary, although they currently have a maximum annual production figure stated at 3,600 KG per annum, they are nowhere near these figures. However with that being said, the company just recently stated that they are at full production now in regards to their 50,000 square foot facility. As a result of this, well build our short term valuation assumptions on the following premise: 3,600 KG produced for 2018 Although the 250,000 sq ft expansion is to come online in mid 2018, it is not being factored in due to the life cycle of the plants. The current facility saw an expansion come online at a similar point, and the difference was not notable as of yet. Sell price per gram of $9.00 Cost per gram of $0.90 Through the utilization of these assumptions, we land on a revenue figure of roughly $32.4 million. Assuming 10% of this figure is allocated to cost of goods sold, it leaves $29.16 in gross margin to cover associated expenses with this product. We realize well take some flak for this one, but the reality is is that the company as of yet has not achieved maximum output on its production line as of yet. Even with the recent expansion, it still cant seem to reach figures estimated originally for its 7,000 sq ft facility. Due to this, its possible that this revenue figure is actually high. Long Term Valuation The long term valuation of a cannabis producing company is slightly easier when they are only focused on the production and sale of dried cannabis flower and oil. In this instance, without any pharmaceutical divisions to try to factor in things are much more clear cut for investors. Rather, we have to just put blind faith into the estimated production figures that are supplied by Hydropothecary. Assumptions for this napkin-scratch valuation are: Three year outlook (mid ~2020) Current production estimates of 108,000 KG are met Price per gram of $7.00 Cost per gram of $0.70 In this instance, were taking a longer outlook so as to account for the time required to get the new one million sq ft facility fully operational. In addition to this, it can be assumed that over this time frame the price per gram of cannabis will decrease significantly as more suppliers obtain licenses. This market saturation will undoubtedly drive down the price of cannabis. Weve also accounted for the anticipated reduction in cost per gram as a result of the economies of scale involved. Based on these assumptions, estimated revenue for the Hydropothecary is $756 million. On a gross margin basis, this figure dips to $680.4 million. Associated expenses at this production level are currently difficult to estimate based on the lack of current comparisons. Based on the current market valuation of the Hydropothecary, this is the term likely being utilized by investors. Closing Remarks Ultimately, we have become semi-bullish on The Hydropothecary Corporation after our Deep Dive in to the company. Their emphasis on transparency and customer experience is what in our opinion sets them apart from the competition. When combined with their strong ties to the province of Quebec, they currently have an advantage that others in the market simply dont have as of yet. Speaking to their ties to Quebec, one last thing we didnt mention is the work that they have done with the provincial government. To this end, they have assisted the government through providing consultation services on the creation of Bill 157. The Bill is focused on the control and use of cannabis and cannabis products in the province of Quebec, and will provide the basis for the related legislation. Going forward, this will likely be a major benefit to The Hydropothecary, which remains the only fully licensed producer in the province, and the only producer headquartered within the region. This year aims to be a significant year for The Hydropothecary, as well as the sector in general with recreational legalization looming. Provided it can sort out its low production figures, this could be a banner year for the company. With two expansions scheduled to be completed before this time next year, many changes will be coming to the company. The only question is, are they up to the task? Wed like to think so.