RE:RE:RE:Big Savings in Budget ItemsYou're welcome...here are some more key points -
The main positives going forward: I. The Hollister ore processing is
now at 80 % as of January 2018, which is much better than Q4 (70.5 % around only!!). P. Huet says they can get to 85 % - 90 %
which would be almost at par with Fire Creek if they can get to 90 %.
II. You can see they have an
extra $ 10 M - $ 12 M set up in CAPEX for the Midas Mill.
Good since that's where they should be spending $$$ to boost milling capacity and doing all the required mods. No spending on garbage like TN. Good for the Board to cut that out. III. The reason why cash costs are $ 675 to $ 725 is due to those high cost 10,000 oz. GOEs - 12,000 oz. GOEs from True North to cover Care & Maintenance OR ELSE, cash costs range would actually be lower than 2017's. Now cash cost range is pretty much equal to 2017's, so not bad considering high cost of processing TN tailings but at least C & M is covered.
IV. Another good thing is the
CURRENT 15 K mined tons stockpile (AT HOLLISTER) from Jan 1st, 2018 is at a HIGHER grade of
0.48 vs. grade of Q4 2017 of
0.40. This clearly supports the improving recovery rate of Hollister ore as Huet mentioned.
V. TN came
over 27,000 oz. GOEs - another decent surprise even though TN was a total disaster.
VI. Q4 2017 GEOs sold
29.99 % higher vs. GEOs sold in Q3. All about the SOLD not mined.
VII. Guidance has been sandbagged at Fire Creek and Midas for 2018. Clear as day people. Very clever of Huet and can make for guidance INCREASE mid year pending how Hollister ore recovery goes. Would not be surprised to see guidance go from 186 K - 202 K to 195 K to 210 K.
Pending increasing recoveries of Hollister ore, at this valuation, this is a top takeover targer for a small midtier name. There is a reason though Waterton bought & now BlackRock they must view this as more conservative play for 2018 + a rising PoG.
Main & Only Significant Negative: Algos will view the
DEFERRAL of production 15,000 oz. GOEs at Hollister as a miss of course and could cause a sharp drop at the open.
BUT, based on the projected 29.99 % increase in quarterly revenue vs. Q3, earnings wise, they may be able to break-even or even have a slight profit due to the lower costs scheduled for Q4. Q3 was a super expensive quarter for 2017.
JIN
TheWolff wrote: Thanks Jin for breaking it out, I am just glad the got it out of the way, and looks promising going foward, now with the outlook of the PoG for this year as well as the guidance, I think the best times are ahead, I think they really try with TN, glad they got it offline sooner than later, thanks again brother for your comments.