RE:AnalysisExcellent analysis. I would add that this 2018, 10 years after the great crash. Lots of debt out there and the interest rates could go up.
tinker901 wrote: First of all, CRE has managed to maintain a reasonable share price in this major landslide that has affected the mining sector and other markets as well. Of course, the areas who had the most gains recently were hit more severely.
Crypto's lost 60% plus of its market share for example.
Why is this hapenning ? For a while it looked like SQM had created a panic in the lithium sector, but backing up a bit shows that it is one factor only in all this.
Political instability, rising interest rates (the Dow lost 650 points yesterday on investors selling on raised interest rates). And maybe the pending economic crash that is overdue.
Looking back to January 17th NMX was at 1.95, LAC was at 10.87 and CRE at 1.56. Since then NMX is down 23%, LAC is down 27.7% and CRE is down 26.3%.
But before January 17th, the correction had already started (without the news of SQM). Looking at their recent highs of NMX 2.45, LAC 13.75 and CRE 1.84, We already had lost NMX 12.2%, LAC 21% and CRE 15.2%.
The crypto rise was based almost only on speculation with not much solid data to back it up, so no big surprice in that market.
The weed market also has alot of unfounded speculation that the new legalized recreational market will be huge. In reality, there is no data to support speculating that the users would actually increase that much and this not even take in account the black market's "competitive reaction"
As for Lithium, I believe that the new EV trend is irreversable. it is now a known fact that electric motors have several advantages over fuel guzzlers. And since nothing comes close to dislodging lithium for storing energy efficiently in a relatively small format it is here to stay.
Add to this everything that is mobile : phones, pc's, tablets, tools, ect.... And then grid stability, solar and wind storage.
A correction was due, but our next highs will be even greater with money coming in from the crypto and weed investors looking for a more "intelligent" bet.
If you sold part of your position between 1.84 and 1.54, good for you. If not (like me) and you held on, you should be worried alot. I am just about sure that we will be back close to our all time highs or better before the AGM. By then we will have received news of new capital invested with CRE.