RE:Proactive Investors 2/2/18Agreed. Uranium is not an easy commodity...but nobody said it was. One factor that I have not mentioned before is that the fuel burn-up...that is the length of time fuel remains in the reactor has increased substantially over the years which means that utilities need less fuel than before. It also means that any inventories built up will last that much longer. But how long will it be before demand exceeds supply? Who knows. For me a time horizon of between now and 2025 seems right. If Uranium prices have not moved substantially by then I will be out.
However, I see a few things that will change the picture from what people see now. For the first time in many years there is synchronised growth in all regions of the world. That means more demand for energy. The biggest competitor for Nuclear Power Plants is natural gas...especially in North Americe. When the price of that gas starts to increase the price of the power produced from it increases,...and THAT all of a sudden makes nuclear look cheap.
Many countries are looking to nuclear power to fill their energy needs and clearly if nations like UAE and Saudi Arabia (awash with fossil fuels) see the need for it you better believe that those nations with NO fossil fuels are going to go nuclear in a big way when the price of fossil fuels driven by 7.5 billion people wanting a better life (=more energy) starts to go through the roof. Global Growth across all continents is going to drive up the cost of energy. You can play oil and gas and make good money there and you can play Uranium for spectacular gains from where it is now. Add to that the Paris Accord calles for huge reductions in fossil fuel use and you can see that coal will be under huge pressure. Coal is baseload. Shutdown coal and you have to go nuclear. There is no other option unlsee you want the ligyts to go out.
Just a matter of time.
Malcolm
Takes time but it is inevitable.
Malcolm
Will1999 wrote: - Uranium: Combination of sustained depressed prices, high-profile supply cuts, notably major producer Camecoand Kazatomprom, and budding global nuclear demand are expected to boost uranium prices. Utilities will be entering a major contracting cycle as 30-35% requirements in 2020 are not under contract.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/29329/today-s-market-view-the-us-and-china-continue-to-lead-synchronised-global-growth-in-commodity-consumption-29329.
Do you have the patience to wait it out? Seems like U investing is always waiting on the next big event.....prices did rise anticipating the end of the Megatons to Megawatts - but then the global financial crisis hit and hit hard.
Prices started back up, then the Japan earthquake. Two Black Swans!
....just wait for:
......the Japan restarts (are up to 5?)
.......production cuts
.......Kazakhs to stop selling in the spot market
.......Chinese reactors to come on line (global demand)
.......Indian reactors to come on line (global demand)
.......western utilities to get their U requirements under contract
....then prices will rise.
Don't get me wrong, I've been in U for a while...remember James Dines anyone? 2020 is rapidly approaching...and their have and will be many opportunities to make money in U.
More Patience....again.