RE:RE:RE:RE:Bottom on surface, PONY and BNP similar - similar cash flow, similar book value; but fundamentally, BNP has considerably higher cost structure, relatively more debt, somewhat bloated balance sheet, and more legacy assets overhang; not saying PONY won't go lower, but on metrics, PONY is a better company, so it should command a higher price, relative to BNP
as for consolidation, I think we're in the early stages of it; look at the recent volatility on daily charts, the recent spikes look more like lumpy buys, rather that re-shorts to me; then the drive downs on weakness, that would be counter-productive to re-shor as well - I think those our shakeouts; I think the spikes up are either short cover or new long positions; instinet has been busier recently; plus, if you look a the annual chart, the rate of desent has decelareted and it kinda looks like we're starting to round off the bottom; TA is not my thing, but I think we re-test 2 and if we hold, that's a tripple bottom and confirmation of base building starting; next two weeks will tell... as for the sector, there have been some buyers - on any one day you'll see the odd outlier - Pony, Bir, AAV all have had some out of character days - either short cover or new long are selectively pickup up positions; that in itself is a signal we're near bottom, or at least in value range