PlantManager013 wrote: SS: your post is written from a trader's perspective.
For me, as an investor, the decision not to sell at 44$ was a risk management decision.
Risk is defined as probability x consequence.
Sitting at 44$ the probability of a price drop was fairly high.
On the other hand, for me, given where I bought, how much I have invested, my time horizon and also the expectation that the SP will bounce back, the consequence was small.
Overall the risk of a price correction was, from my perspective, small.
If we look now at the risk for selling at 44$
- probability of price going up was smaller
- consequence was high, as I would have had to play catch up, buy at a higher price and then a price drop would have been even more substantial. Let's also not forget that we were waiting for MOUs, which could come at any time. Missing out on the Ontario MOU would have been (would be) a major setback for and investor.
Let's also remember that even you had a similar choice to make, at 18$, decided to sell and then had to play catch up.
So the risk of selling was high, from my perspective.
My point is - there is no one way to do this. Each one of us has to do their own risk analysis, since we all have differenct circumstances. I would not change one thing in my actions so far. That is the other thing - looking back and regretting decisions like that only makes you more likely to make emotional, incorrect decisions in the future.
starsearcher40 wrote: I took a lot of flack here a few weeks ago, saying that Weed was vastly over-inflated, and said too that I tried desperately to short it in the $40's, but after 4 days of trying, finally gave up as the brokerage didn't have any shares to loan. (pisses me off something fierce). I'm not here to crow at all. I don't like when anyone loses money (ok, especially me). But I DO think there is room for some reflection from some of the die-hard "I'll never sell my shares", "married to the stock" crowd. Let me start by saying I've made the mistake, several times actually (slow learner), of getting married to a stock. It's a difficult habit to break. But let's start here with this statement. YOU ARE HERE TO MAKE MONEY. A couple of thoughts. 1) Weed IS the best stock in the sector. But as the company develops, there will be occasions that it is vastly oversold, and as was the case recently, vastly overbought. These opportunities can and should be exploited....especially when they are glaringly obvious. 2) Don't say the following: "It's only a paper loss". No, it's not. It's an unrealized real loss. Whether you execute the trade, or not, does not make your account balance change. Saying this is just vastly torqued thinking, aimed to sooth the screw-up. 3) Don't say the following: "Well I've been holding since "x" dollars, and I'm up." Again, this is just torqued soothing. Slap yourself silly, because you're now down over 50% from a month ago. And that is/was REAL money. 4) Don't say the following: "Well I'm holding for the much longer term. I'm not a trader.". Bullsh*it. You don't have to be a trader to make smart investment grade decisions in your given stock. Again, you're here to make money. Anyone who says they don't mind round-tripping from 45ish to 21ish is a massive liar. I want to be absolutely clear. These are ALL things that I have said to myself. These are ALL mistakes I have made. But to those who just bashed me because I said what I think will happen and it's (at that moment) thoughts against the stock, in your own personal reflection understand that if I couldn't jar your thinking, the market certainly has that capacity. Again, I've been taught "the lesson" by the market many times over. So what are my current thoughts? Today the stock becomes a buy. The selling is overdone. Such is the market. It's never that good, and in the case now, it's never that bad. There is money to be made. Note: I have no doubt that there will be some that continue to bash. That's just the way the boards work I suppose. I offer these tough words only as food for thought. To survive long-term in the market, tough words and thoughts are needed. I do my best to kick my own as*s with these tough thoughts every day. Truly, my very best to all to make money in the market.