GREY:CRIUF - Post by User
Post by
retiredcfon Feb 06, 2018 1:12pm
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Post# 27512131
RBC
RBC Outperform, Speculative Risk ($11 one-year price target)
Fourth-quarter earnings and ACFFO (release date: March 8)
We expect that Crius Energy’s Adjusted EBITDA will increase to US$20 million in Q4/17 from US$14 million in Q4/16, which is primarily attributable to the recent acquisition of US Gas & Electric (USG&E), which closed in Q3/17, partially offset by an increase in SG&A as a result of the acquisition. We anticipate Q4/17 ACFFO/unit (diluted) to decrease to US$0.22 (from US$0.24 in Q4/16) primarily due to a higher share count as a result of the USG&E acquisition. We note that during the quarter there were ~8% more heating degree days in the U.S. Northeast and ~30% more heating degree days in Texas compared to Q4/16. The Y/Y increase in heating degree days is likely to lead to higher volumes but may be more than offset by an increase in costs due to pricing spikes (particularly in late December).
We expect investors will focus on net customers added, sales mix, and solar contribution, as well as commentary on the impact from the extreme cold weather and high energy prices in late December to early January.
The FactSet mean EBITDA estimate for Q4/17 is US$20 million (three estimates ranging from US$19 million to US$21 million).