RE:Shareholders Are Not SellingSo I see that Bloomer is now Long on IVN. Took a while, but you got there. You're still a knob, though.
In regards to your calculations...you need to use the float, which is 78.27% of the shares outstanding (i.e, 618.6M shares) . The rest are held by insiders, with RF holding the largest share at 20%. Hence, your 6.9% is really 31.7%. So, let's say it's about 1/3 of the shares have traded based on your analyses.
So there is a material turn on the shares, which in itself, doesn't mean a whole lot. Consider the successive stepping down of the SP on low volume over the past year.
The recent SP decline may be attributed to a number of things. Perhaps a 'perfect storm.' Retail investors with a short attention span, and stop loss triggers set too tight. Others who are traders and not investors, and perhaps short selling. The DRC's tax reform may have triggered the initial sell pressure, but when taking into account it doesn't amount to a material difference in the financial projections. The supertax will be gamed, as some have already noted. And of course, a jittery market that has seen significant pull back. Small caps and miners will take a share of the beating. And then there are the retail investors and fund managers that have simply lost interest in the story...'speculative' money have been diverted to other shiny objects with better and immediate growth...like weed stocks and crypto. And of course, the dreaded market makers that Chevelle keeps reminding us about. Yeah, let them play their games. I'm holding onto my IVN shares firmly.
I believe it's not a perfect storm, but rather the calm before the storm. There's more at play here. I consider the following:
- The value of the IVN assets are undeniable
- The yet to be released updated drill results for K&K, with signals from IVN to expect monster news
- Today's announcement of Egizio Bianchine
- Platreef financing deal that was almost completed last summer (90% of the $1B). This could have easily been closed by now, which leads to the conclusion something changed...for the better...a bigger deal, perhaps. The resources in the ground have not disappeared, the commodity markets have not declined in value.
- Drill results from Western Foreland yet to be released
- IVN is not pissing around - each of the projects are advancing towards production on a very determined schedule with no slippage (amazing risk management)
In addition, IVN's noticable absence in releasing a comment on share price for the recent decline, while doing so twice last year for a SP decline that was trivial compared to the recent pull back. Ask yourself, why is that? I suspect that they know exactly why there's been a decline, and/or, they have an Ace in their sleeve. Perhaps a sale of one of their assets; perhaps an updated study and drill results that will make history (as RF would say); perhaps IVN is a takeover target as they have consistently noted that potential suitors have been sniffing around.
I don't believe there's any plans to issue equity to pay for their expansions. Of course, that's simply my read on RF's prior commitments and approach in getting full value of his assets. Today's news release...the most important paragraph is a quote from
RF:
“Over the years, I have come to appreciate that qualified people realize the greatest potential of quality projects. Egizio’s appointment is reminiscent of our situation in 2001 when the late Ed Flood joined us from Haywood Securities, becoming Deputy Chairman to support the development of our Oyu Tolgoi gold and copper discovery in Mongolia. Ed was instrumental in helping to secure Rio Tinto as a strategic financing partner for Oyu Tolgoi – an arrangement that proved key to Oyu Tolgoi’s emergence as one of the world’s top copper and gold mines. We are confident that Egizio will help Ivanhoe’s board and senior management to achieve other outstanding outcomes for our current shareholders and stakeholders.”
I remain Long and overweight, and Lord I pray, if the price hits $2.50 I'll be adding more without hesitation. Remember folks, I'm a long-term investor. I'll be here in 3, 5 and more years if IVN isn't sold to the highest bidder before then. It will be an interesting and exciting time ahead.
GLTA