GREY:CNKEF - Post by User
Post by
bouquetson Feb 13, 2018 4:05pm
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Post# 27553236
Reserves report
Reserves reportAny prognosticators out there want to prognosticate about the reserves report due today?
My observations:
1. Chinook's new Montney wells should mean a substantial increase in PDP/PDNP, 1P, and 2P.
2. The outage of the Enbridge pipeline at Oak, which seems to have shut in the Birley wells since mid-December, may mean that half (?) of production that would have been PDP (Proved, Developed, Producing) will be listed under PDNP (Proved, Developed, Non-Producing). (I assume that the date of calculation is Dec. 31, after the outage took place.)
3. The figures under 1P (Proved) and 2P (Proved and Probable) should be up substantially since Chinook began the year with 6 Montney wells and now has 13. Since the Montney wells make up 50% of CKE's production, and are double in number, we should expect up to a 50% increase in 1P and 2P. (Since the new wells were drilled near already existing ones, they will probably move more 2P to 1P than add new 2P.)
4. 1P and 2P are estimates of what is economically feasible at the assumed price strip (which is presumably lower). The strip for gas prices will presumably be much lower than last year. This should be more or less balanced by the increased price of NGLs and condensate.
Any comments?