RE:RE:RE:Disconnect? 54568546846357,
I respect what you post and used to come to similar conclusions about the possibility that Air Canada takes over Aimia.
Disclosure: held preferreds for a few months in 2017 (liked the risk/reward better). Still watching.
My take has evolved on the value for Air Canada.
When you look at the trends, long term, Aimia has built a redemption liability that is no longer matched by reserve assets as a significant part of those assets (cash) has been already distributed. This is not a problem as long as billings remain stable or continue to grow.
If Air Canada start their own program, they will start with a zero redemption liability.
You have to run various scenarios and evaluate how much this mismatch is worth.
I come up with much lower valuations for Air Canada's perspective who can opportunistically wait as it represents pretty much the only reasonable solution in terms of optimal preservation of the Aeroplan brand.