RE:RE:Did Alexandria Quietly Drill Better than Probe Metals?GH,
No doubt, I agree with what you’re saying, especially considering there are likely different goals of the drill programs. Some drilling is more exploratory or targeted with different purposes. Some try to gauge the extent of a resource, while others are trying to build up confidence of a resource size.
However, I still think it would be a disservice to not give Eric Owens some kudos for his recent drilling results. He has several faults that deserve critiques, but he also deserves credit where it’s due. I’m not sure how anyone can be critical of his Zone 2 and Zone 4 targets. Outside of focusing too much time on Akasaba and Sleepy between the two resource estimates for Orenada, I don’t see where EO made many mistakes here.
Regarding your other points about Alexandria’s shortcomings, I have always agreed that financing and investor relations have contributed to its depressed valuations and slower drilling programs. However, let us not forget too that Alexandria Minerals has a lot of scars from weathering more storms in a challenging market. Probe has only been around since 2015.
Regarding the PRB and AZX comparison, I went into the analysis with an open mind. Data visualization specialists tend to look at problems more abstractly to help people ask more interesting questions. More rigorous analysis is needed to answer these questions more conclusively. Anyway, I found it rather interesting that Alexandria's results held up well, even when ignoring specific factors, especially considering AZX doesn’t typically get these types of results. Even if you cannot make an apple to apples comparison here, I'm still impressed with the 2017 drill program for Alexandria. I also think the market is ignoring the data for some unknown reason, but, as I mentioned in the original post, Alexandria has a reputation.
Knowing what we know, it’s difficult for someone to convince me that AZX isn't significantly undervalued compared to its peers. Saying this, that doesn't mean I think Probe Metals is overvalued, and generally, I would prefer a deal with PRB over other companies, even at a discount.
I will continue on with my analysis and try to figure out why the market is undervaluing Alexandria. For example, my next research is focusing on the actual cost of AZX’s dilutive financing vs.the real value it acutally built up. I’m not done yet, but the results have been very interesting so far. As with all my analysis, my disclosures, confidence, and assumptions are all made clear, while I also provide the supporting data for others to use.
Anyway my overall goal is to encourage more meaningful conversations with honest analysis instead of relying on the more emotional market to tell us how to value Alexandria's assets.
NP