RE:So it goesPeterM1 wrote: Nothing much changes here.
Deputy head troll Bouquets - always the drama queen- is back onto the Oak pipe line - stoking fears that CKE could have its production cut to nil. The landslide occurred back in November and CKE was pumping almost 6000 boed a day in December. His post here was similar one back in November 2017 when he tried to stir the pot with another “pipe line incident” report. This “incident” occurred back in 2016, was not a big deal anyway and took place on one of the old Craft properties. In short it had nothing to do with the new CKE.
But to clear up the Oak situation - take a look at the map on page 35 of the report below. It shows the pipelines serving CKE - it is pleasing to see how well served our properties are. There are in short alternatives to Oak.
https://apps.neb-one.gc.ca/REGDOCS/File/Download/2503864
Meanwhile the suspicious CIBC and TD trades continue. On February 22 anyone notice how - having just bought about 100,000 shares at 20.5c, TD dumped 500 to bring the price back down to 20c. Yesterdays trade - the only one of the day - was in classic form. 500 shares down 10c to cause an overall decline of 5% in CKE value.
It seems to me that all in all accounts at CIBC / TD are net buyers of CKE and could by my very rough estimate have accumulated a couple of million plus shares over the past year.
Strange Bouquets never discusses these trades. But then he tells us he owns no shares in CKE. It is also strange then - that until I drew attention to this fact - his sole pre occupation and only posts were to the CKE board.
Maybe he could shed some light on this. It could take our minds off all these pipeline incidents he keeps bringing up.
I'm not sure what light you expect me to be able to shed on this.
Some of these trades, I would guess, involve small-holders who have had partial fills on a limit order, have only a few shares remaining, and dump them at market at the end of day rather than ending up with (say) 100 shares. But that doesn't seem to be the case this last Friday, as you point out.
MIght there be a trader (or traders?) who sell a handful to push the price down to accumulate more? Not impossible, I suppose. But the transaction costs would add up pretty quickly and the whole plan might blow up on a single piece of positive news. And if they've been accumulating, as you suggest, they're in the hole only slightly less than everyone else.
Are you implying that I was one of those traders? No, it wasn't me. As you note, I have no shares to sell. At least right now: I did actually buy a few shares at C$0.30 when the production of the four new wells was released but talked myself out of it almost right away and sold. I broke even, if I recall. Might I buy again and stay longer? Possibly. There's a lot of bad news priced in, including pricing and the pipeline (which you might be right about: but management did mention it as a reason for missing their projected production for year-end). And there is uncertainty about its capital program. Results for the 4Q and FY are out soon, and they will probably be soft.
In the meantime, there might be some net positives coming. It looks like CKE might have acquired some more land near Martin Creek in the February land sale. And they are going to drill an exploratory well up there (soon?) that could add to reserves and allow production expansion using Chinook's existing infrastructure. And there could be announcements on the LNG front soon. The next couple quarters should be interesting.