The Store is ClosedIt doesn't matter how great a promoter you are, if the new mining law is prohibitively expensive. Why should IVN risk throwing away a billion dollars on an uncertain future? They don't have to do it, and it shouldn't be expected. They always have the option to go to South Africa and accelerate into a 12 Mtpa mine at Platreef, ahead of schedule.
Some posters are complaining that IVN should be advancing Kipushi and K-K more rapidly. I see this the other way round. IVN has avoided a dangerous sunk costs trap, where you invest so much money in rail, power, and processing facilities, that you can no longer afford to walk away. Look at Glencore with KAT. They have nearly $8 billion in debt, and will soon be subject to a 10% revenue based "strategic metals" royalty on cobalt. They will also face a 50% super tax, on top of a higher 35% corporate tax rate. The Kabila regime is betting they are in too deep to walk. IVN is not in that position. So, why volunteer to put yourself in that position, if you don't have to?
So, what happens to Kipushi and K-K? Nothing; the value is still there, and when people are prepared to be reasonable, or better yet, a new government ascends to power, those plans for expansion can be rapidly implemented. The Company has two choices right now. They can idle all projects, and possibly risk expropriation. The logic being if you don't spend, the government will give it to someone else. But who else would be stupid enough to take over? And if Kabila does expropriate, how would the Chinese government respond? K-K is a joint venture project with a Chinese state owned miner, Zijin. Gecamines, notoriously inefficient, would be forced to develop these properties at their own expense. They would certainly be subject to heavy international financial sanctions. I think this is why Gecamines was originally so opposed to Chinese partners. Sticking it to Western miners is one thing. Sticking it to the Chinese could be dangerous. The Kabila regime fears them.
The other possibility is that the Company slow walks these two projects forward. They can stop drilling and complete feasibility. Much of this work can be completed outside Congo. Then if they proceed with development, go slow. Funding is valuable and they can't afford to waste it.
There are two things investors should be watching for in the months ahead. 1) What the Company says. 2) What the Company doesn't say. You can't put everything in an official news release. They're literally dealing with gangsters, and so must remain circumspect in everything they say. You don't just walk up to Al Capone and call him a jerk. We may feel free to say whatever we want, but the Company deals with these people every day. You can be sure of one thing. RF is not going to throw good money into the garbage. Would a slow down hurt shareholders? It will hurt a lot worse if the Company proceeds to spend heavily under such unfavourable conditions.