RE:The phone rang, he said hello this is James AndersonSo Jim said, "James agrees NUG is undervalued." He also agrees that "if" GSV is in play, "The sun will shine brighter on NUG." I also reviewed my notes, & Jim was stating that "if" GSV is in play. I (Tom) think it could become in play after it's PEA. That "being in play" would be public knowledge quickly.
I recall Jim saying he and Jonathan Awde are good friends, and that Jim's wife had known Jonathan I think through a college course or two, but it may have been a previous job. Jim admires the job Jonathan has done with GSV. GSV's market cap is over $100mm, a level that James believes would open NUG upto significant institutional investment.
I will attribute to James if it was something he discussed. GSV has a PEA, Preliminary Economic Assessment underway. Jim and I didn't discuss, but takeover bids become more likely after a company has a PEA. It is a way to justify taking the risk, in my estimation & observation. You will recall NUG is awaiting a 43-101 resource estimate.
I am no expert, but I see GSV as at least a step or two farther along. Steps include market cap, intitutional investment, PEA, and probably somewhat better drill results.
James expects that at some point NUG will experience the sort of drill results GSV has seen. Obviously it isn't possible for Jim to "know" the future. But I would say Jim has a more informed opinion than most. Bear in mind that 2018 is again primarily about expanding and defining the gold resource. Big investors are on board. If NUG encounters a big strike, that is icing on the cake.
That said, I know nothing, but wouldn't be surprised if NUG raises some cash after the resource estimate, and/or early drill results. Also, a surge in the price of gold might open some opportunity for new investment by institutional investors. Our liquidity isn't awful, but neither is it sufficient for an institution to get in through the open market. I note Waterton had a tough time getting out, but they are close. That also could raise our price ceiling.
Let's recap potential good news:
1. Resource estimate
2. Early drill results
3. Interviews and Caesar like writeups.
4. Potential for improved gold price to increase market cap. I see this as not certain, but likely.
5. Waterton exiting on a news release or two.
6. Followed by institutional investors getting in.
7. An institutional offer for Waterton's shares, while not expected, could happen. Stranger things have happened to blocks of shares in our past.
8. A higher gold price, & NUG price could eliminate Warrants from being underwater.
That, in essense is why I bought 40,000 last week. We are nearly in the 3rd month of 2018. Plenty could happen by June or July.
GSV's presentation cites 49.5% institutions, with Oceana's 15.6% and GoldCorp's 9.9% in addition. As of Feb. 23, GSV has C$ 51mm cash. Nice. Retail is 17% and insiders 9%.
By comparison, NUG has 16% ownership among 3 named institutions. My own slightly educated wild guess is that Waterton is around 1%. GSV likely has dozens of institutions in their 49.5%. Oceana's 16.2% and Barrick's 10.9% compare to GSV's 2 large miners. I would add that Newmont is near by GSV. NUG has 40.3% public ownership and 16.6% among principals. Several years ago, I was told there were a couple dozen million share holders of NUG. I don't know if most are still there.
It is interesting to loosely compare the two firms. GSV's market cap of US $385mm is roughly ten times that of NUG. In a rough sense, the stock price is also around ten times NUGs. There are other comparisons.
While GSV has opened the door to operating a mine, my sense is that going into operation isn't the most likely. Being "in play" is more likely. Then, look out NUG.