RE:RE:questions
Correction (sorry for triple post): the mine is 3 years away. It'll start construction early next year, best case, and take 2+ years. Road should start next winter and reliably last 4 years. Also, the combined costs are slightly over 700m, but the CAD is stronger, so who knows without the actual plans. As regards the Golden Giant Hemlo Mill and current refinery plans, the 18m (2007 dollars) cost for the Hemlo Mill included dismantling and transportation and was later sold for below 0.5m. The last few years Goad has gone from a large refinery using second hand parts to a brand new refinery to a brand new extra size refinery to refine surplus cobalt from others at a profit... So much mission creep and you can just smell the desperation of a man who wants a final, massive success that undoes everything before. I looked up refinery costs, and the one I found quickly was Ecobalt, which is going at 180m or so, or 280m including dismantling and other costs. I am -not- happy about taking three times the risk necessary for what's a moderate advantage over modulary expansion. Take a hint from Ardea Resources. Maybe Canadian regulation is bad at dealing with modulary expansion, but even so I'd be happy with a smaller refinery. I sincerely doubt success would see more than a low double digit percentage difference between a large and medium refinery, and a 200m dollar refinery would be much easier for everyone to accept, especially from a company with a fairly long and bad history. Given 20 years of failure, as a CEO would you want to take your FANTASTIC resource and ask investors for a Moderate or HUGE sum of money? That said at the end of the day this is an extremely attractive project. The road is great, the refinery should be top class, the resource is fantastic. Even the questionable leadership is mitigated by the long-term work. The only things to really worry about is the macro, what financing might look like, how long this will take given Canadian red tape, and how long cobalt will be an essential component in stable batteries before some work-around is found that adequately serves mass production. These may sound like major risk factors, and they are, but risk is an unavoidable factor in junior companies poised for massive profits. Fortune Minerals is far less risky than similar companies, with a few exceptions. That said I would definitely diversify. DYDD, only my personal thoughts.