RE:RE:RE:RE:AZX New Fact Sheet (March 2018)Hi GoldOp,
Yup, it's an unfair valuation. But that's what the market seems to say. So, the incumbent BoD of AZX will have to work hard to undo the perception the market has given to AZX.
Let's ignore the details for now (e.g. indicated, inferred and the 60/40 assignment to Sleepy. Say, ~1.4Moz total for both cases, but why $126M (the current cap of PRB) versus $43M for AZX? (Also, let's make the value of the two non-core properties = PRB $25M cash). That what the market seem to say. Same sort of asset, but AZX is about 43/126 =1/3, i.e. 3 times under-valued compared to PRB.
We are comparing oranges to ornages, but presumably the taste of one orange would seem to be better than the other, judging from other factors, such as management, record of performance, etc...
In summary, PRB seems to be able to convince the market that their oz in-situ is worth (126-25 cash)/1.4Moz = $72/oz (it was (~126-25)/0.77Moz = $131/oz before the update), while AZX value is 43/1.4 = $30/oz in-situ. It would seem, that the incumbent BoD has to unload the non-core properties to get some substantial amount of cash, and paint a promissing picture for Orenada (and Akasaba) in oder to bring AZX to the same level with PRB.
Yes, I am advocating a merging of the two equals, but AZX BoD and management will need to pull up their socks. AZX assets are there, in the ground, and they are not going anywhere. They just need to be shown under better light.
GH
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goldopportunity wrote: Hey GH -- so even before alexandria's still-to-be-released RE, we have 1.41 Moz (m+i and inf) for the cadillac break. How does this compare with what you wrote about probe's valuation based on their indicated and inferred updated RE? Are we talking apples to apples, apples to oranges?
GH wrote: "Currently, PRB MktCap of ~140M assumes 140M/1.4Moz = ~$100/oz in-situ."
Unless I'm reading something wrong, it would appear to me that alexandria with a mkt cap of cdn $43M is extremely under-valued and/or prb is very over-valued???? What say you? Jmvho.
goldopp