RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Stop Beating Yourself Up and BUY@ Eunice:
Thank you for your question. Let's remind everyone that this is a BLUE SKY scenario where TSO3 dominates the scope sterilization area, which also has a positive spillover effect to its market share into the existing sterilization market.
So, here are my TAMs (total addresable market) and market share assumptions for this blue sky scenario:
- Traditional sterilization: 30,000 machines --> 45% market share
- US ERCP: 2,500 machines (there are roughly 2,500 facilities doing ERCPs, so each will needf at least one sterilizer) --> 90% market share
- RoW ERCP: typical assumption that rest-of-world market is roughly the same size as US = another 2,500 machines --> 65% market share
- Colonoscopes: this is the biggest opportunity as there are 15+million procedures in US alone. Since VP4 can only do 1 scope per load (as per FDA label), we will require 30-40k machines in US alone. So add another 30-40k for rest-of-world, and we get into a huge number here. I use 45% market share in the US, as this is roughly the % of colonoscopes that will penetrate some sort of mucous membrane (like polyp extraction, biopsy), and 25% for RoW. I know the math is inexact here, but the colonoscope market size could be 2-3x the current sterilizer market...
Again, everyone, this is the blue sky scenario.
Even for a BEARISH scenario, I get to $5.75/sh USD
- Existing sterilizer market: 5% market share = 1,500 machines
- US ERCP: 33%, RoW ERCP 20% = 1325 machines total worldwide
- ZERO colonoscope
Finally, remember what I said about the likelihood of a mutual fund unloading 3.6mm shares. There is no way of knowing, but I think this is happening. Let's save all the RR bashing and stock price alerts until end of March, which is when I expect this liquidation should be done...