RE:RE:This stock was trading at $7 when oil was $26....OK...Let me take a shot at this. The original post didn't mention a specific date, but the numbers seem to correspond to the period around February of 2016. Looking at the Q4 2015 report, here are the answers to your questions:
Dec 2015 (Last S/P close at $6.98):
- Total Shares Outstanding = 65,124,209
- Net Debt = $120M
- 12-Month Guidance Provided by Company = $60M or about C$0.92/share (company also cut its dividend to current level at this point).
- WCS/WTI Differential (at least according to the Alberta Government) $14.02
Dec 2017 (Last S/P close at approximately $4.85)
- Total Shares Outstanding = 110,324,045
- Net Debt = $293M (as of Q3 2017 report - last one published to date). $228M reported in January Corporate Presentation.
- 12-Month Guidance Provided by Company = $132M or about $1.20/share
- WCS/WTI Differential (approximately $25 according to Oil Sands Magazine)
However, as Chris was good enough to point out, incomplete facts lead to misguided conclusions. In addition to the numbers listed above, there are a couple of other numbers worth looking at:
- The ACTUAL price for WCS bottomed out in February 2016 at around US$16/Bbl. Today, WCS sells for around $36/Bbl.
- Cardinal's overall Production has increased from 13,700 BOE in Dec 2015, to 21,000 BOE today.
- The proportion of Cardinal's Heavy-Medium to Light Oil has significantly changed between the two periods, increasing from approximately 10% Light Oil production to 45%. Cdn Light Oil has increased in price from around US$25/Bbl in Dec 2015 to US$58/Bbl today.
Overall, Cardinal is earning substantially more for its March 2018 production than it was back when the share price was significantly higher.
So ... Even though the Guidance for 2018 for CF/Share is 30% higher than it was at the end of 2015. the stock is only trading at a multiple of 3.5X forecast 2018 CF/S vs. the Dec 2015 multiple of 7.6X (vs. forecast 2016 CF/S) that it was trading at then. Debt to Forecast Cash Flow was actually higher in Dec. 2015 than it is today (2X vs. 1.6X).
All-in-all, I believe that the current price is more reflective of the market as a whole than it is of anything that has changed within the company. If Cardinal were to trade closer to historical CF/S values, it would be priced at around $8.
Chris_toronto wrote: Your post tells me:
1. You don't understand much about stoch valuations
2. Incomplete facts leads to misguided conclusions
My questions:
1. How many shares were outstanding then and how many are there now?
2. What was the debt then, and now?
3. What were the 12-month Forward projections on production and cash flow PER SHARE then, and now?
And finally 4. what was the sprread between WTI and WCS then, and now?.