droidmeister wrote: zenith9 wrote: droidmeister wrote: People have been guessing at THC's share price by the end of the month... Well, I'll say that THC opens at $4 or higher on Monday April 10.
How do you justify that droid? Seems a bit high no?
How do I just that price? Good question. As far as I'm concerned, there are two ways to figure out the value of a company's shares: the quick way and the long way. The long way requires calculating EPS and ROE, because that should tell you what people will be willing to pay in order earn to a certain dividend which has tobe competitive to other investment opportunities. In an industry that's just about to be legalized, that requires making some enormous guesstimates and assumptions, how the domestic and international markets will evolve, what companies will remain standing, all of which other people have already tried to do and I won't repeat their work again here. It would take me an hour or so to repeat some research, crucnh some numbers and I've got things I have to do right now. PLUS my assumptions and estimates might be all wrong.
The other way, the quick way, is to compare the company's stock price against those of a group of peers. That's the way I've done it in the past. When I've advised friends on the value of THC shares, I say "IF COMPANY X is WORTH Y, based on today's prices, then THC should be worth at least Z because THC has just as much or more of A, B, and C". of course, that assumes that company X is really worth Y, and not just wild speculation by a bunch of crazy investors. It was relatively easy to compare the HC licenses, the number of square feet of production grow space, and then factor in an estimate of the future plans of each company, etc.
That's why, if you go back 12-18 months, I'd compare THC to a bunch of peer companies like FIRE, OGI, EMC, EMH, BE, VP, etc. and I'd say WTF? If those companies are trading around (whatever) THC should be at least as high, and here's why - blah, blah, blah.
Nowadays, I'd say things are just beginning to start to change, and that comparison isnt quite as easy to make. I think we're starting to see winners separating themselves from losers. I think there are 3 groupings of pot companies now: the biggies, like WEED, APH, ACB, LEAF, and then the losers, the ones that I think are the walking dead: NU, CHV, ISM, ATT, LG, VP, LIB, etc.
Then there's a 3rd category, which is the interesting one - the medium priced and sized companies: THC, BE, EMC, EMH, THCX, MYM, OGI and others.
In the past, I would have asked myself, of the companies in this third group, what' going on. Who's doing what? What certifications do they have? Expansion plans, how close to reality?
But where THC is concerned, I only have to say to myself, if THC is worth close to $2 at close of trading on Friday, I come up with my $4 estimate because I'm betting, playing a hunch, reading the signs, however you want to describe it, that between now and April 9, THC will have released their quarterly report, announced the greenhouse deal, announced the beginning of shipments to the EU, finalized the expansion in Kelowna, and possibly received HC approval (if that's even necessary) of the expanded space in Kelowna, the start of growing in the new space in Kelowna, and an announcement concerning their retail division - THC2GO - such as the store in Kelowna they're working on. I'm expecting the next quarterly report to contain better than expected revenues with at least one surprise. Add all of that up, and if that doesnt make THC worth double what they closed at on Friday, I'm a monkey's uncle.
We're all just making our best guesses, and that's mine. I picked April 9 because I figure by then for sure we'll have the next quarterly report.