RE:RE:RE:Philippe Dubuc, chef de la direction financière de Theratechjfm1330 wrote: Dubuc said in the interview that they expect the market in the US for Trogarzo to be 5 to 10 times the market of Egrifta. We all know how conservative this management is in its communication strategy, so I take the 10 times, C$450 M, as the floor for Trogarzo. So it would mean C$216 M in revenues for Thera.
Again, as always with them it's a very conservative and imprecise evaluation of the potential. In four years the drug price in the US should at least be US$130,000. With a currency conversion rate of 1.20 and 30% discount it means C$110,000 per patient per year. So for every 1000 patients for a year it means for Thera:
1000 x C$110,000 x 0.48 = C$52,8 M
So what Dubuc said is that their best case scenario is peak revenues of C$216 M which means roughly 4,000 patients in about four years. It would still be great and worth keeping the stock and you have Europe and Canada on top of it, but I still think it's old Thera style conservatism.
About Canada, he said they are still in the process of making a decision. I think there is interference from the Egrifta non reimbursment story there. I am sure HIV advocacy groups in Canada want Trogarzo to be approved here asap, but Thera wants reimbursment of Egrifta as part of the deal. Otherwise their reluctance makes no sense. Canada is one tenth of the US. Even if the price will be lower here, why would they not take it? I think Tanguay is very resentful about the non reimbursment of Egrifta. He took it personnaly.
Just remember his answer about Canada in the Conference last Tuesday: "
"At this point we dont have specific plan for Canada, we wanted to get the FDA's decision first ... in the comming month we will sit and see what is the game plan for the Canadian Market, if we decide to go ahead with Canada"
So that part about " .... if we decide to go ahead with Canada" That was clearly adressed to those that refused to allow reimbursment of Egrifta in Canada back then. Clear message, Mild revendge !! :)