IVN is in a Strong PositionWith no debt they can simply ramp up operations at Platreef in South Africa and wait for better conditions to begin construction. Instead of 4 Mtpa at Platreef, shoot for 12 Mtpa. That alone would more than justify a $3 share price. From the Platreef feasibility study, Table 22.3 we can triple all numbers for a 12 Mtpa mine:
NPV8 =$2.75 billion usd
NPV5 =$5.88 billion usd
Current market cap is $1.8 billion usd
IVN will naturally prioritize the project which is most favourable. Meanwhile, the Company still holds Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi. If the Congo government is prepared to be reasonable, then they can advance to construction. If not, then all that energy can be expended in South Africa. The Congolese government is not realistic. They now believe they are indispensable to the global supply chain, that the world is held hostage to their whims. Global markets will simply adjust like they always do, and money will flow elsewhere. Good luck getting back confidence. It will take a completely new government for trust to return. A hand picked successor will not suffice. In a country with minimal infrastructure, miners will be unwilling to invest heavily if there is no certainty controlling costs. A five year stability pact doesn't cut it. Why take the risk? It may be that the Congolese government does not want to be suckers, but neither do international miners. And they have a lot more to lose than Kabila.