A Variety of TopicsHey gang,
Do we have a sense of how many Bullboarders will be going to the AGM? It it is a good number, then it would be nice to meet-up and put faces to names. If a bunch of us will be there, then I will do the unthinkable and consider some time away from work. I know that Greybeard plans to be there. So, that one.
Forkliftguy! Seventy-six years young! You are obviously in great shape. Your mind is as nimble as ever. Of course, given your investment experience your continued faith in Torstar only adds credence to our investment thesis.
I grudingly have to credit Teddybear for his reference to and connecting of Ravel's famous composition (Bolero) to this Tostar...adventure. Grudging because the reference to music has elevated our discussion from mere money and business talk to something bigger and better...something bordering on the universal. I would add that the general serenity of that piece of music can serve as a model for our own emotional response to our Torstar experience. Let us wait calmly and enjoy the process, and at the end, hopefully all hell will break loose with us richer at the end.
I have previously touched on the topic I am about to talk about now, but maybe the topic merits revisiting. Specfically, what is the purpose of posting to this board. I think following list covers the main points: 1) to share new material information 2) to offer contrary opinions as discussion points 3) to offer credible valuations 4) to cheer each other up so as to continue this...er...extended overtime 5) to offer ideas about investor psychology (general or personal) 6) to say a lot of nonsense [maybe that's mostly me!!} 7) to plan relevant actions and activties.
Well, I am not sure why I felt a need to make that list.
Here's something to consider. There might be a tendency to think of Torstar as a media or newspaper business. Fair enough. I would add that we need to also think of Torstar (maybe first and foremost) as an advertising company. Advertising. Advertising is big business. Advertising dollars (or advertising spend) is only increasing...the so-called ever-expanding pie.
So, the question is whether or not Torstar is positioning itself to continue to pull in advertising revenue. I think it is.
I have not been achieving much succes in my Lottario exploits. I think I have developed a gambling addiction, but best to stay in the denial stage for now.
Oh...here we go. Some brlliant stuff coming up. Here's the stuff that you guys count on me to come with. Am I right??
So, there was a peculiar headline about some sort of investigation regarding the Torstar/Postmedia newspaper swap transaction. Well, every schoolchild knows that the Companies would have made sure to get everything properly arranged from a legal point of view. So, that would mean the headlines had some othe purpose. Given the nature of the headlines, it would seem that the purpose was to depress the share price. Why would Companies want to depress a shareprice? Obviously for the purpose of getting heaps of shares a cheap price. Why would they want to do that? Because of the foreknowledge that the price is destined to go up...substantially.
Here is a parallel case...of sorts. Some three or four years ago, Fairfax was accused of insider trading and they were investigated by some regulatory body. Again, big scary headlines. We all know though that Watsa is an honest fellow that would not get involved with tactics that are frankly beneath him.
So, let's just look at some facts. On August 1, 2014 the insider trading headline surfaces and Fairfax shares go from $518 to about $490 by September. The shares then take off and get to $727 dollars by March 27 2015.
At the end of April the same headline surfaces about insider trading (with more details added to the story). The shareprice tanks to $575 to mid-September of the same year.
So, in both cases (Torstar and Fairfax) we have scary headlines meant to bring the integrity of the Companies into disrespute and to offer a reason for a share price decline...but ( as we will see I believe) the shareprice then does quite nicely afterwards for a good long while.
As far as I see it, the scary headline tactic is indication of good...great things to come.
Alright lads...time for some coffee!