Antibe Therapeutics Inc(Pre-Merger) ATBPF

Congrats to this board.

[Madmanmadox]

Congrats to investors but most importantly to science. This is a breakthrough. 

If you follow this company like I have been you will know that they are benchmarking/comparing against the success of Celebrex (1B+ in sales first year in USA region alone) specifically on their investor deck. This does imply this is a blockbuster billion dollar drug and also that the company is aware (whose insiders own a large % of the float) that it is a billion dollar drug. I feel like this drug will replace Naproxen as the go to world wide given this GI significance.

Ultimately, we know nowadays that Celebrex has CV issues but I wanted to see how it did on a GI study the months before the drug came online (which is why people were so happy about Celebrex back in 1999) and likely why it became the most "successful drug" (in sales) at the time (1999-2000). Check out this https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10580457. It was not a linear path getting into Pfizer's drug portfolio but that is where it ended up.
Anyway I know it is almost 20  years old but it reads similar to the "were effective but safer than Naproxen story" so I found it interesting to compare. Celebrex did pick up in annual sales from the 1B+ throughout the patent life ;).

I should disclose I am still long 150,000 shares and will not consider selling, based on all available information, until the market cap gets close to 500M. Most of my valuations are in the 1.50- 3.50 per share range based on a series of variables (sales/growthrate/discount rate/royalty rate/Margin % of partner after royalty/how the NPV is split between ATE/USAPartner). And that crazy huge range in value alone is also silent on all other drug pipelines for Antibe as well as a Western EU partnership. I did a very limited "wannabe Montecarlo" with 30 paths haha. Ultimately, you should do your own DD before blindly following strangers on the internet but I am glad it has worked out so well thus far for investors. Its about time something replaces Naproxen for good. NSAID's dont have to equal Ulcers. I do believe at 63 cents, and with the news just released, that my position is actually derisked relative to yesterday afternoon even though the dollar value of my position has increased ~75% since. Well the risk profile is now less binary it still assumes a partnership or buyout to unlock this value... which is still binary in nature no matter what probablities you assign so make sure to only invest what you can afford to lose. Anything can happen in these early stages.