RE:CIBC at it again......CIBC is way below everyone else. That's why I do my own financial analysis based on Net Present Value. That doesn't give you a price target. Rather it considers a realistic buyout price. What's the business worth to a buyer? A 12 Mtpa mine at Platreef at NPV8 is worth at least $2.90 share. It would actually be higher because costs of expansion from 4 Mtpa to 6, 8, and 12 would be considerably less than initial start up. That's after applying an 8% discount. At NPV5, it's over $6 share. Net Present Value (NPV) is THE international gold standard to evaluate ALL capital investment projects. No one buys any business based on Net Asset Value (NAV). NAV is most commonly used to calculate the value of mutual funds at market close.
You would figure someone would pay US$2 billion for both Kipushi and 39.6% of K-K. That's over $3 Cad. This entire Company should easily sell for $5 or 6 share in a year or two. If you wait for better metals pricing, it would go for higher. Long term there isn't much downside. There is a real business here. It's not just a question of trading momentum.
Warning: If copper is declared a strategic metal, expect further downgrades from CIBC. They could say the Company is then only worth $3.00, even $2.50. That's because royalty is based on revenue, not profits. In other words, CIBC could set a price target below the value of a Platreef 12 Mtpa mine. I feel confident Platreef will proceed once the SA mining law is revised as expected. The Company has three options in Congo; build it, delay a decision until after the upcoming election in December, or sell it. Management is not trapped. They should avoid making a deal no matter the terms.