RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Very Interesting New CYDY presentationSPCEO1 wrote: Often, the label closely reflects the the phase III testing requirements. So, it is best to assume those parameters will be in the label. Instead, theyare not even mentioned, which is a very big deal and makes the job of the sales team much easier.
Here is the description of the phase III patients
"More than 85% of patients had at least one identified mutation conferring resistance to the Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTI), Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NNRTI) or Protease Inhibitors (PI) and more than 60% of patients had resistance to at least one Integrase Inhibitor (INI). Study patients were infected with HIV-1 resistant to more than 75% of all drugs in the NRTI, NNRTI and PI classes and to 1-2 drugs from the INI class, on average. Finally, 50% of patients had HIV-1 with resistance to all available drugs from at least three classes of ART."
https://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2016/10/28/theratechnologies-results-of-hiv-biologic-and-long-acting-investigational
I would say the label, by not being too specific, allows treatment in a similarly varied group.
Clearly the issue of drug options is controlled by more than just MDR. 120,000 HIV patients under treatment experience virological failure each year. At that point doctors need to make a decision about treatment options. Each patient will have a list of drugs that are still open for them to use, the doctor is looking for two or preferrably three drugs to give as a cocktail to control the virus. Trogarzo is likely to be near to the bottom of everybodys list but many people are going to have very short lists. The theoretical max market size is 120,000 but that will never actually be it. My personal minimum market size is 15,000 from some very uncertain MDR epidemeology publications. Thera 20-25,000 looks plausible if not conservative. 40-50,0000 MDR+non-adherence seems possible, CYDY 70,000 may be close to a plausible maximum. The chances its lower than any of those numbers seems fairly remote. So the way I see it the potential market size is at minimum good, as SPCEO often says its a question of whether we can up that from good to great or fantastic!
On the question of homeless/drug addicts here's a surprisingly positive piece of research.
https://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/Fulltext/2000/03100/Adherence_to_protease_inhibitors,_HIV_1_viral.8.aspx There appears to be many networks to support these people (through homeless shelters etc) and once on treatment and in these network then these people can remain relatively adherent, good news. I'm sure there is a population that never sees a doctor, treatment or medicine of any kind.