I agree Chapter 11, in the short term, is not a risk.

They have enough cash to kick the can down the road, but eventually, the debt holders will come to the realization that the antiquated Cuban JV will never generate enough cash to service the entire debt load + high overhead (corporate office, high executive salaries, etc) + 12% of future Madagascar cash flows.

I suspect they will have a tough time refinicing the next round, then there could be trouble.