RE:RE:RE:WNNYes, an endless litany of predictions come and go never to be realized, made by intelligent people.
To me, the biggest single indicator of a turn around to bull territory is the spot price volumes being transacted. Occasionally, the good people at FNArena publish their thoughts in the "free space" and I have copied a quote from their 27 March 2018 commentary - "Seven transactions were concluded totalling 900,000lbs U3O8 equivalent." I think their source is Trade Tech. At that level of transaction, the equivalent rate of 45,000,000 to 50,000,000 pounds per year, and at the current spot prices of sub $22, we will never see the spot price rise above $22. That sales volume is roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of a year’s worth of consumption of U - consumers, the reactor operators, are able to pick up their needs on the spot market and this has been going on for years now. We don’t get to see the estimated transactions for each week, but every time FN lets the cat out of the bag, I note that the transactions are generally around the 900,000 lbs per week level.
WE need to see spot transactions fall below the 100,000 lbs transacted per week to see U prices head higher. The question is who is selling into the spot market? If it is the miners, the producers, then investors are screwed and those miners are fools for giving their U away for free.
But, as time passes, it is getting harder to believe that the secondary sources are to blame as the spot source. Here is a table I put together of Japanese reactor historical requirements – obviously a large potential secondary source.
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | JAPAN - HISTORICAL URANIUM DEMAND | | |
| | | SOURCE - WNA | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | tonnes | tonnes | pounds | YEAR | | |
| | U | U308 | U308 | as of 1 Jan | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | 8872 | 10,465 | 23,070,999 | 2007 | | |
| | 7569 | 8,928 | 19,682,641 | 2008 | | |
| | 7569 | 8,928 | 19,682,641 | 2009 | | |
| | 8003 | 9,440 | 20,811,227 | 2010 | | |
| | 8003 | 9,440 | 20,811,227 | 2011 | | |
| | 2805 | 3,309 | 7,294,201 | 2012 | | |
| | 4636 | 5,469 | 12,055,585 | 2013 | | |
| | 366 | 432 | 951,757 | 2014 | | |
| | 2119 | 2,500 | 5,510,307 | 2015 | | |
| | 2549 | 3,007 | 6,628,491 | 2016 | | |
| | 680 | 802 | 1,768,291 | 2017 | | |
| | 662 | 781 | 1,721,483 | 2018 | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | NOTES: Due to Fukushima, in 2012 there would have been | |
| | 383 reactors in the world fleet actually consuming U. Currently |
| | there are 410 consuming U as 37 reactors are still idle in Japan. |
| | The drop in demand from Japan can be estimated to be | |
| | 109,750,000 pounds from 2012 thru 2018 - Likely this became | |
| | a spot source of approximately 15.7M lbs per yr on average. | |
| | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
It would be good if someone could publish the actual spot market transactions for 2017, is it still running in the range of 45-50M lbs/year?
B2S2