RE:RE:RE:Supply ShortageWe need to get global oil stocks below OECD 5 year average as first step.
Via combo of: OPEC cuts sustaining, shale underperformance, venezuela chaos / meltdown, Iran sanctions, trade war risk just hot air, demand remaining robust, declining conventional oil due to under investment, some unexpected force majeure, etc.
Only once we drive another 40-50 million barrels down next few months based on combo of above to break even on current 5 year avg interpretation criteria, then we may be trending in wti +70. To move to higher anchor range we need to drive 5 year average into deficit to leave buffer for potential 2019 ramping up. This will need a deficit of 50-100m barrels I reckon to get wti +80.
if this happens rest is history. Till this unfolds enjoy the 10 cents. The pricing scenario models just shared tell the story to come if we hold and our patient. The magnum opus nearing.