RE:Well that sucksMr. Bigger,
This is subject to interpretation. Is the old model for commodities even valid in a world where China was an insignificant agrarian peasant society just 40 years ago? I still remember reading Economics Explained in 1987, where the authors, one of whom won the Noble Prize, stated that China was not at all interested in capitalism. The current industrial revolution has no historical antecedents. We are in uncharted territory. Most industrial metals are consumed overseas, not in the USA. So metals prices have mostly disconnected from American manufacturing business cycles.
I'm also skeptical we're in the "tail end of an expansion". Are Asians just going to quit and say, let's stop growing, because we're at the tail end of an American super cycle? That's it guys, put down your tools. Let's go home and collect pogey. I found it interesting that after Trump's $100 billion additional tariff proposal, Asian markets didn't fall. They mostly ignored the news, and continued rising. American markets fell the next morning. This leads me to believe US markets have simply gone up too far, too fast, and are consolidating, rather than collapsing. When markets finally do turn lower, you'll know it. And it won't be for some frivolous reason, like It's Time For A Recession. I would look more for a major war, or a global banking pandemic. Those are hard to predict in advance.