RE:RE:RE:RE:it just doesn't look likeThat is my point dreamin. Using futures as a predictor fails to take into account yet to happen events. In other words futures do not predict the future.
Let us say for example that the Russians decide to put the screws to President Trump. They cannot use oil or gas as their (Trump - sorry could not resist) card. The US does not need Russian gas or oil. But the US DOES need Kazakh Uranium. It produces only 5% of its annual Uranium requirements but produces around a fifth of the nations electricity from nuclear power. Therefore 95% of the fuel needed to produce 20% of US electricity comes from outside the USA...much of it from Kazakhstan.
A simple telephone call from Vladimir Putin...one very smart individual by the way....to the Kazakh President and the supply of Uranium to the US dries up and sppot prices increase dramatically. Always remember that Russi and Russian affiliated states control 60% of world Uranium production. Saudi Arabia controls only 10% of world oil production and look what it was able to do to oil prices...and still does. Should the Kazakhs decide to curtail Uranium deliveries to western NATO nations the price of Uranium will see valuations in the thousands of dollars.
They are just biding time at the moment waiting for the hammer to drop...but drop it will. Too good an opportunity to miss. The Kazakhs want a high price for Uranium to launch their IPO so it will be in their best interests to cut off supply. The west is highly vulnerable. No new mines and (if you take the Kazakhs out of the picture) nowhere near enough production to meet demand.
There are other things like natural disasters, mine floods that could increase prices and of course on the negative side if we have another nuclear incident we will all be on the losing side (very remote possibility in my view since many lessons were learned from Fukushima).
So, yes futures can be a useful guide but I tend not to put much reliance on them for commodity futures...and especially a commodity like Uranium that is heavily Government controlled and therefore subjuct to political shannannigans.
Use Uranium futures with great caution.
M