RE:$17.08$17 is a good target. My method is similar.
In the next 12 months I see EBITDA of $105M at 6.5x, less debt. That's $20.14 per share.
Longer run, we'll expand earnings through the ELD mill and see the sector's sick earnings bring in some new buyers. So in late 2019/2020 I see $125M in EBITDA at a 7.5x. That's about $30.55 assuming net debt down to $130.
The div is easy to pay and forecast levels are chump change. The power plant pays for it easily.