RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:New presentation is up on the company website Thanks for the explanation, but I must respectfully disagree.
First, your number is not consistent with the number Thera presented in its presentation. According to Thera's corporate presentation: 1)"
US MDR HIV population 20–25 K" and 2) "Annual population requiring new treatment 10–12 K".
This means every year 10k-12k patients (of those 20k-25k MDR population) will be in virologic failure and will become candidate for Trogarzo. Assuming this 20k-25k MDR population will be stable, since there will be HIV patients becoming MDR.
As such, assuming 20% death rate due to natural causes: NOTE:
1/ Calculated patients who will be candidates for Trogarzo.
2/ Formula: this year patients = annual number of patients with virologic failure + (previous year patients - 20% death rate)
For penetration rate, let's use Fuzeon penetration rate and apply that rate for each year potential Trogarzo patients:
2003: 19,400 KITS
Sales: $28.3 mil
# of patients: 1415 (12% penetration rate)
2004: 58,900 KITS
Sales: $85.7 mil
# of patients: 4285 (21% penetration rate)
2005: 72,000 KITS
Sales: $112.7 mil
# of patients: 5635 (21% penetration rate)
2006: 79,700 KITS(Topsales)
Sales: $134.2 mil
# of patients: 6710 (21% penetration rate)
So, Fuzeon peak sales was approximately 21% penetration rate.
Now, let's apply 21% across potential Trogarzo patients forecast: The number seems to be very, very consistent with Fuzeon actual sales when it launched in 2003 !