RE:RE:RE:RE:production resultsAlfTanner,
I think that Firecracker may be including some capex or debt repayment expenses. My revenue and cost model is based on historical costs at Cosala and Galena, and I used $17 USD for my silver price, $1.07 per pound of lead, and $1.40 per pound of zinc.
Cosalas throughput in Q1 was only 123,286 tonnes milled, but management says they will be at close to 1700 tpd by Q2, so I estimate 150,000 tonnes milled in Q2 with slightly higher ore grades: 50 g/t silver, 1.8 percent lead, and 3.4 percent zinc. I assumed the same metal prices for Q2 as for Q1, and the result is a predicted profit of $7.1 million USD with EPS of 21 cents.
Here is my spreadsheet for Q2. My estimates for Q3 and Q4 are 30 cents EPS and $10 million in profit, and 39 cents and $15 million USD in profit, respectively. Darren says he will put $20 million USD on the balance sheet and I believe him! And those numbers are based on silver staying at $17 USD for the remainder of the year, which is highly unlikely given that silver has broken above $17 USD and is in the process of back testing the breakout.
Results are not the only thing that matters. I think that a company's directors are real important, because they are the movers and shakers behind the scene. I was fortunate enough to meet two of Americas Silver directors at Orvana Minerals' AGM in Toronto back in February. Both Gordon Pridham and Alan Edwards are also directors at Orvana. I was highly impressed by Gordon Pridham, who serves as Chairman of the Orvana Minerals Board and ran a really excellent meeting. So when it comes to investing, I think that one has to really step back and look at the big picture.
That is why I am back in USAS.