RE:RE:Prices about to move up hard?I see this happening over 6 quarters (market cap):
| | Multiple | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| Q1-2018 | $11.15 | $88.62 | $185.45 | $204.82 | $224.19 | $243.55 | $262.92 | $282.29 | $301.65 | $321.02 | $340.38 | $359.75 | $379.12 | $398.48 |
| Q2-2018 | $108.00 | $219.83 | $359.61 | $387.56 | $415.52 | $443.47 | $471.43 | $499.39 | $527.34 | $555.30 | $583.25 | $611.21 | $639.16 | $667.12 |
| Q3-2018 | $196.85 | $339.60 | $518.04 | $553.73 | $589.41 | $625.10 | $660.79 | $696.48 | $732.16 | $767.85 | $803.54 | $839.23 | $874.91 | $910.60 |
| Q4-2018 | $266.95 | $433.36 | $641.37 | $682.97 | $724.57 | $766.18 | $807.78 | $849.38 | $890.98 | $932.59 | $974.19 | $1,015.79 | $1,057.39 | $1,099.00 |
| Q1-2019 | $286.97 | $453.40 | $661.43 | $703.04 | $744.64 | $786.25 | $827.86 | $869.46 | $911.07 | $952.68 | $994.28 | $1,035.89 | $1,077.50 | $1,119.10 |
| Q2-2019 | $267.18 | $415.16 | $600.12 | $637.12 | $674.11 | $711.10 | $748.10 | $785.09 | $822.08 | $859.08 | $896.07 | $933.06 | $970.06 | $1,007.05 |
My price forecast is this:
| | 2018 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2019 | | | | | |
| | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| $USD/mfbm | $500.00 | $515.00 | $530.00 | $550.00 | $590.00 | $580.00 | $572.00 | $560.00 | $555.00 | $540.00 | $525.00 | $510.00 | $495.00 | $480.00 | $465.00 | $465.00 | $465.00 | $465.00 |
| $CAD/mfbm | $649.35 | $668.83 | $688.31 | $714.29 | $766.23 | $753.25 | $742.86 | $727.27 | $720.78 | $701.30 | $681.82 | $662.34 | $642.86 | $623.38 | $603.90 | $603.90 | $603.90 | $603.90 |
My volume forecast is this:
| CDN | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| USA | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12.50 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 | 16.25 |
I'm assuming all-in costs of $500/mfbm for Cdn, and $350/mfbm for US volume.
This is EBITDA:
| CDN | $6.7 | $7.6 | $8.5 | $9.6 | $12.0 | $11.4 | $10.9 | $10.2 | $9.9 | $9.1 | $8.2 | $7.3 | $6.4 | $5.6 | $4.7 | $4.7 | $4.7 | $4.7 |
| USA | $2.2 | $2.4 | $2.5 | $3.6 | $4.2 | $4.0 | $3.9 | $3.8 | $4.6 | $4.4 | $4.1 | $5.1 | $4.8 | $4.4 | $4.1 | $4.1 | $4.1 | $4.1 |
| Power | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
Here is debt (millions per quarter; retained goes to debt repayment.) It's just back of napkin.
| | Div | Tax | Interest | Capital | Retianed | Debt |
| Q1 | $2.60 | $6.49 | $3.40 | $3.75 | $16.22 | $143.78 |
| Q2 | $2.60 | $9.47 | $3.40 | $3.75 | $28.14 | $115.64 |
| Q3 | $2.60 | $9.19 | $3.40 | $3.75 | $26.99 | $88.65 |
| Q4 | $2.60 | $8.13 | $3.40 | $3.75 | $22.78 | $65.87 |
| Q1-2019 | $2.60 | $6.50 | $3.40 | $0.00 | $19.99 | $45.89 |
| Q1-2019 | $2.60 | $5.78 | $3.40 | $0.00 | $17.12 | $28.76 |
Now, all of this comes together in the first table for market cap. here's that table as share price. I base it off my calcuated trailing 12 months EBITDA.
Also uploaded as a better looking graph, URL below.
https://imgur.com/a/CAP72Dp
Multiple (will increase as the sector gets sexy and CFF gets proven)
| | 2.00 | 3.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | 6.75 | 7.00 |
| Q1-2018 | $0.42 | $3.35 | $7.01 | $7.75 | $8.48 | $9.21 | $9.94 | $10.68 | $11.41 | $12.14 | $12.87 | $13.61 | $14.34 | $15.07 |
| Q2-2018 | $4.08 | $8.31 | $13.60 | $14.66 | $15.72 | $16.77 | $17.83 | $18.89 | $19.94 | $21.00 | $22.06 | $23.12 | $24.17 | $25.23 |
| Q3-2018 | $7.45 | $12.84 | $19.59 | $20.94 | $22.29 | $23.64 | $24.99 | $26.34 | $27.69 | $29.04 | $30.39 | $31.74 | $33.09 | $34.44 |
| Q4-2018 | $10.10 | $16.39 | $24.26 | $25.83 | $27.40 | $28.98 | $30.55 | $32.12 | $33.70 | $35.27 | $36.85 | $38.42 | $39.99 | $41.57 |
| Q1-2019 | $10.85 | $17.15 | $25.02 | $26.59 | $28.16 | $29.74 | $31.31 | $32.88 | $34.46 | $36.03 | $37.61 | $39.18 | $40.75 | $42.33 |
| Q2-2019 | $10.11 | $15.70 | $22.70 | $24.10 | $25.50 | $26.89 | $28.29 | $29.69 | $31.09 | $32.49 | $33.89 | $35.29 | $36.69 | $38.09 |